Golf betting tips: Sony Open final round preview

Golf betting tips: Sony Open final round

1pt e.w. Chris Kirk at 10/1 (1/4 1,2,3 Sky Bet, Unibet, BetMGM)

1pt Matthieu Pavon for Top 5 at 10/3 (Unibet, BetMGM)

Early in Saturday’s third round at the Sony Open, it looked as if those not quite dedicated enough to watch until the early hours would wake up to find a six-way tie for the lead. In the end there was some separation. American duo Keegan Bradley (63) and Grayson Murray (64) emerged as the joint-leaders on 14-under, a shot clear of compatriot Sam Stevens (63). Despite flags flapping, the front trio were still able to pepper their scorecards with birdies.

There is a logjam but that comes two strokes further back on 11-under. It’s an international one too with Canada’s Ben Silverman, Japan’s Taiga Semikawa, Frenchman Matthieu Pavon, Korean Byeong Hun An and American Chris Kirk all tied for fourth, three in arrears. Add in four at 10-under and nine at 9-under and five shots cover the top 21 on the leaderboard.

In other words, the first full-field event of the season is quite the puzzle to solve for final-round punters. That said, the betting offers a more decisive picture. Bradley is a very clear 2/1 favourite, ahead of Murray at 11/2, Stevens at 8/1, Kirk at 10/1 and An at 12/1. From there it’s 25/1 and more for the rest.

Time for some history. A 54-hole leader hasn’t won at Waialae since Matt Kuchar converted a two-shot advantage in 2019. Since then the four winners - Cam Smith, Kevin Na, Hideki Matsuyama and Si-Woo Kim - came from either two or three shots back. Kim was fifth at the start of Sunday while the other three were second. In fact, in the last quarter of a century, you won’t find any Sony winner worse than sixth on the 54-hole leaderboard while the biggest deficit made up in that time was only four shots.

Many may be happy to take Bradley as the proven class act; he’s a Major winner, has six PGA Tour titles to his name and two of those came in the 2022/2023 wraparound season. The negative is that he’s not a great converter. The 37-year-old has topped the third-round leaderboard five times previously in his PGA Tour career but went on to hoist the trophy just once. In the other four he finished runner-up so, overall, history suggests Bradley will give it a good go but may just get picked off.

Murray has a PGA Tour win from 2017 (Barbasol Championship) and captured a Korn Ferry Tour title as recently as September thanks to a closing 66. But, like third-placed Stevens, he’s played this event just once and missed the cut. Either of those two winning would severely buck the trend of champions having played well here in the past. It’s also a negative that they didn’t tee it up last week as eight of the last 10 Sony winners had played The Sentry. Bradley, for the record, hasn’t had a top 10 in 11 Sony starts but he did post tied 12th in both 2020 and 2022. He also took part last week and was 47th.

As for the 11-unders, Japan’s Taiga Semikawa certainly has the right name for someone trying to brush the rest aside on a Sunday. The 23-year-old said after his Saturday 66: “I was named after Tiger Woods and I kind of took on the way he plays. I grew up watching his aggressive style and I think that kind of fits my personality.”

If he can perform like Tiger in round four, the 33/1 would be a cracking bet but victory from here does seem rather far-fetched.

Byeong Hun An should be standing out at 12s but a bogey at the last rather summed up a chaotic round (six birdies and four bogeys). He talked of “poor shots” and “silly mistakes” afterwards and his approach play has been modest compared to those around him. Silverman has missed both his cuts (2018 and 2019) at Waialae and is another not hitting his irons as crisply as leaderboard rivals.

So, after all the crossings out with a black marker pen, I’m left with two to go into battle with.

The first is CHRIS KIRK, who is attempting to match Ernie Els (2003) and Justin Thomas (2017) by winning both Hawaii events in back-to-back weeks. Okay, they’re truly elite players although don’t forget that JT wasn’t a Major winner at the time while Lucas Glover won in consecutive weeks as recently as August so relevant precedents exist.

Si-Woo Kim ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach when winning last year’s Sony and Kirk leads that category so far after 54 holes. He started bogey-bogey in round three so did well to play the final 16 holes in 5-under. “Happy with the way I’m playing. Hope I can catch fire tomorrow,” said Kirk, who did just that when shooting a closing 8-under 65 to win The Sentry last Sunday. A lack of wind in the Sunday forecast gives him the chance to repeat that and Kirk has laps of 62 and 63 to his name here previously.

With a second (2021) and a third (2023) at this event in the last three years as well as another runner-up finish in 2014, he’s a bet at 10/1 with three each-way places.

My second player to follow is less obvious: MATTHIEU PAVON.

The Frenchman is one of the 10 players that earned a PGA Tour card through the DP World Tour’s Race to Dubai. There are two things about that. Firstly, it shows that he’s coming off a strong season. Secondly, the rather back-door route must give him a sense of this being a free hit, especially as it comes so early in the season.

The big thing Pavon has in his favour is that he has very recent experience of shooting a low one to take victory. That came in October’s Open de Espana when he closed out with a 64 to secure his first DP World Tour success. The 31-year-old followed that with a top five in the DP World Tour Championship and it was four closing birdies in that event on Sunday that secured his PGA Tour card. In short, he doesn’t lack bottle.

Perhaps winning is a stretch - he’s 28s in places for those who want a crack - but with plenty of doubts about others at the top end of the leaderboard, Pavon is capable of landing a top five for which he’s a 10/3 chance with a couple of firms.

He ranks 8th for SG: Approach so far this week and no-one hit more greens in the right number than the man from Toulouse in round three.

Posted at 1050 GMT on 14/01/24

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