GoVols247 staff picks: No. 10 Texas vs. No. 4 Tennessee
No. 4 Tennessee (17-3) welcomes Rick Barnes’ former program — No. 10 Texas (17-3) — to Thompson-Boling Arena on Saturday night looking to make amends for last year’s one-point loss in Austin.
It’ll be the Vols’ final game in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge as part of its final year of existence after 10 years. Tennessee is 5-3 in the event. Next season, the SEC begins an annual interconference challenge — men's and women's — with the ACC.
GoVols247's Ben McKee and Wes Rucker give their predictions for who they think will win between the Vols and Longhorns. They also give a pair of bold predictions for how they think the game will play out.
McKee’s Bold Predictions
Longhorns shoot less than 30% from three
Texas does many things exceptionally well on both ends of the floor. One of the few areas in which it does struggles, though, is from behind the three-point line. The Longhorns aren't a great three-point shooting and are shooting just 33.4% from three which is third-worst in the Big 12. Their 7.1 makes a game rank in the bottom-half of the league.
Tennessee's perimeter defense is quite literally the best in the country. UT owns the nation's best scoring defense (53.7 ppg), field goal percentage defense (.339) and three-point defense (.216). In 20 games, Tennessee opponents have managed to make only 96 three-pointers—just 4.8 per game.
Tennessee holds Texas below 70 points
Texas is averaging 80.5 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the floor this season. Its the first time the Longhorns have averaged more than 80 points since the 2009-10 season (81.2 ppg). They’re averaging 16.7 assists per game, have an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.4 and lead the Big 12 in free throw percentage at 75.1%.
It sets up quite the matchup with a Tennessee defense, as I mentioned above, that is the best in the country. It's been more than a month since the Vols allowed a team to score 70 points (Dec. 17 at Arizona; 75). 10 times this season, the Vols have held their opponents to 50 points or less. Only three opposing players have scored 20 or more points against the Vols.
McKee’s Prediction
Part of the reason the Vols will be able to hold Texas' high-powered offense in check is because of the Thompson-Boling Arena crowd. Tennessee ranks fifth nationally in average home attendance (17,519) — one of three SEC teams in the top five — and is one of the most underrated environments in all of college basketball. The crowd obviously won't be the sole reason the Vols win, but it'll be a key part of what should be a close basketball game.
In terms of actual basketball, Tennessee's defense will have to live up to the hype. The Vols can't afford to get into a shootout with Texas' offense even if their own offense has improved over the last month. There's still a level of consistency that Rick Barnes' offense is searching for, and it seems to be starting to find it, but this is a game in which the defense is going to have to win for the Vols. TENNESSEE 68 TEXAS 67
Rucker’s Bold Predictions
Josiah-Jordan James will have a double-double
Attempting to get the pulse of any fan base as big and passionate as Tennessee’s is always a fool’s errand, but the general feeling this season has been really interesting. It feels like at least a good-sized chunk of this fan base is underselling this team, but it also feels like a large chunk of the fan base finally appreciates senior guard Josiah-Jordan James as a player, and how important he is to this team. It helps that James is shooting more consistently from the perimeter, obviously, but his all-around game finally seems to be getting the respect it deserves. He does so many things on both ends, and people are starting to see it, which has to feel good for a player who arrived with five-star hype but has gotten plenty of stick at times the past few years. James’ knee — knock on wood — seems to be better, too, and he’s getting more assertive offensively. I don’t know if he’ll go off from a scoring standpoint in this game, but a double-figure scoring night with 10-or-so rebounds feels possible for him in this matchup.
Santiago Vescovi will outscore Marcus Carr
Texas senior Marcus Carr is one of the best guards in college basketball. He was awesome at Minnesota. He’s been awesome at Texas. He’s awesome. But he hasn’t faced a defense like Tennessee’s because Houston is the only defense in the country anywhere near Tennessee’s, and the Horns haven’t played the Vols or the Cougs. I think Tennessee will run different bodies at Carr, and I think they’ll harass him enough to keep him from going wild. And I think Vescovi is due a big night after scoring just 14 combined points and taking 11 combined shots the past two games. Teams will focus on him because they always do, but I think either he or Zakai Zeigler will have a big game, and I think it’s Vescovi’s turn.
Rucker’s Prediction
Texas is a team that should have everyone’s attention. The Longhorns are legitimately good. Any team that plays in the nation’s best basketball conference and is ranked top-25 nationally in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency is legitimately good, and Texas is a rare team that ticks both of those boxes.
For all the talk of Tennessee’s inconsistent offense, the Horns aren’t exactly consistent on that end of the floor, either. But when they’re good, they’re incredibly good. They’re not the biggest team but they’re very athletic, and senior Marcus Carr is one of the nation’s best guards. And the Horns aren’t quite as dynamic but still plenty good defensively. It would be lazy to consider them the true inverse of Tennessee, but such a comparison would at least be in the ballpark. Tennessee’s defense is the best unit on the court — as it will be in practically every game this season — but the Vols’ offense is arguably the worst (or at least more erratic) unit on the court. Texas is a bit more balanced, statistically speaking.
Texas is also one of the nation’s most experienced teams, and it plays in a league full of tough places to play on the road, so Thompson-Boling shouldn’t completely rattle the Horns. But Thompson-Boling should give Tennessee a boost, especially since this game isn’t a nooner.
With all that said about Texas, though, Tennessee is the better team on paper, and it’s tough to see these Vols losing twice in three weeks in Knoxville. Texas absolutely could win this game, but I think Tennessee will keep Carr from going bonkers, and I think the Vols will win. There’s no bad blood between Rick Barnes and Texas, but the way that game ended in Austin last season did irritate Barnes’ players, and I think they’ll win this one. I actually think they might cover, too, but I wouldn’t wager a penny on that part of the pick. TENNESSEE 73, TEXAS 63
