Greenberg and Jackson: Points at Notre Dame, another Bears win (?!) and the over on Monday Night Football

If you’re just joining us in the heart of football season, Chicago-based columnist Jon Greenberg and Cleveland Browns beat writer Zac Jackson pick football games to bet on every week. Sometimes, they’re right, sometimes they’re wrong. 

JON GREENBERG:Well, we didn’t exactly build on the previous week’s success did we? That’s how it goes, of course. But we put on our hard hats and get back to work. 

I still went 4-3 (16-17 overall) last week, not a disaster, but nothing to brag about. My two big favorites (Dolphins -10.5 and Detroit -9.5) covered and I was not only right about the Bears +5.5, but also about them possibly winning.

You went 3-5 (18-17 overall), nailing another Mike Tomlin special and a too-easy Niners -3.5 over the Cowboys. You had the funniest miss of the week: Marshall-N.C. State under 45.5. That would’ve hit if you doubled it, as the total wound up being 89 points. Also, shame on you for doubting our team, Jacksonville State.

Thoughts on the week that was?

ZAC JACKSON:I don’t even like football. I quit.

I need a couple days to regroup, plus a reminder not to chase terrible Conference USA midweek games.

OK, I’m back. And I’m starting with the game you’ll undoubtedly be attending: Northern Illinois +6.5 (preferably +7) at home vs. our alma mater, Ohio. Homecoming in DeKalb means the crowd will be LIT, and I think the home team will make this just ugly enough to keep it within a few points. Northern Illinois is a top-50 defense in success rate vs. the pass, and though Ohio’s defensive metrics make it a top-10 defense nationally, I think NIU can score enough to keep pace. Give me some weather, please.

I also lean under 45 (and clearly so do the guys who make the lines). But when you’re coming off a bad week, you have to start with one at a time.

GREENBERG: Unfortunately, my son’s bar mitzvah party is Friday night so I’m out for homecoming in DeKalb, unless he begs me to take him as his present. If Tim Albin is reading this, you and the team are cordially invited to the shindig. (Also, if you’re reading this, NCAA investigators would like to have a word.) I can’t bet that game in-state without going to a casino sportsbook, but I’d take the Bobcats -6.5.

I will take Ohio State -19.5 at Purdue. Big spread but easy work for the Buckeyes. And I’ll go with Washington -2.5 at home against Oregon. I’m basically just betting against the streak here, with the Ducks coming in 5-0 against the spread.

Those are my college bets. What else do you have?

JACKSON: First, let’s talk process. Based on my run of good weeks and then last week’s crash, sometimes my reads are pretty good and sometimes they’re as good as things have been for the Browns the last few weeks.

I see your Ohio State pick and I see a trap. The Buckeyes are not some super-team, and after a big finish last week they get a road game a week ahead of their marquee matchup with Penn State. I’m not saying Purdue is any good; I’m just saying I’m not sure Ohio State is either, and to me they probably shouldn’t be laying almost three full touchdowns this week.

At this time of year, I start with spots. I am walking proof that hangovers are real, but I also treat them as a big factor in trying to circle winners. When these teams play matter. I’m generally starting with spots — NIU on homecoming against an Ohio team that’s pretty good and hasn’t been challenged in weeks — and trying to identify bad teams. The one thing I was really able to take from sitting through those Conference USA games is that there are levels of bad. Going forward, I want to be against the teams I think are at the absolute bottom.

GREENBERG: My only experience witnessing Purdue’s supposed home-field advantage was Northwestern beating the Boilermakers there in 2005. Brett Basanez threw for nearly 500 yards and your guy Tyrell Sutton scored the game-winning touchdown. You might remember Oct. 15, 2005 for a slightly more important game: Notre Dame-USC, aka, “The Bush Push” classic. I remember watching that one in the press box as I pounded away on a game story for the suburban Chicago Daily Herald. (Northwestern super-fan Darren Rovell was also at Purdue that day.)

So, you’re probably right, but I think OSU will have a chance to cover.

My NFL picks are Bears +2.5 at home against the Justin Jefferson-less Vikings, Dolphins -13.5 against the garbage Panthers and the Raiders -3 over the Patriots in the Belichick Bowl.

I know they’ve only won one (1) game in a row and one (1) game since late October 2022, but I like the Bears’ chances of doing the impossible: back-to-back victories. No Jefferson should help, obviously, but the Bears will be without Khalil Herbert and probably Roschon Johnson. I’m betting that D’Onta Foreman runs with a purpose after being inactive three of the first five games.

The only question I have about the Dolphins in this game is will the Chase Claypool Curse hurt them?

The Patriots are very, very bad.

My survivor pick is the Eagles.

JACKSON: My survivor pick is Kansas City on Thursday night. A lot of people will take Buffalo vs. the hapless Giants Sunday night and I get it, but looking ahead at the Bills’ schedule I want to save them. The mandate is to survive, obviously, but the object is to win and have some near-gimmes later. Use the Dolphins or Chiefs this week if you have them.

Outside of DeKalb, I like under 53 in TCU-BYU. I really don’t think the TCU quarterback change is that significant. I just don’t think either offense is impressive, and I look for the game to be coached accordingly. I also will go to one of the marquee games Saturday night and take over 60.5 in USC-Notre Dame. I know there’s some bad weather in the forecast, but I’ve seen Caleb Williams and I’ve seen this USC defense. Come hail, sleet, snow or sunshine, they just don’t tackle anybody.

Just checked my social calendar and I’m pretty open Saturday night, so here’s one more: Kentucky-Missouri over 51.5. Missouri is better than most think, especially on offense. Kentucky got shellacked last week and Kentucky’s head coach called out his quarterback and fan base. Sounds like the offense has to show up — and it has every chance to get right here.

I’ve been winning with Browns’ unders and that will probably continue, but I’m hesitant this week. The 49ers have scored 30 or more in eight straight, and as of this writing we’re unsure on the Browns’ quarterback situation. That’s caused the total to drop all the way to 37.5, and if one of the Browns’ backups gets the chance to throw a bunch of interceptions, he will. I fear defensive scores could lead to an over. I’ll say this: if the Browns play P.J. Walker, the line should be almost three touchdowns.

I like your thinking with the Bears, but I’m hesitant because they’re the Bears. The Giants are terrible and might not have Daniel Jones, but 14 (or more) is a lot to cover — even for the Bills. One more NFL pick: Cowboys-Chargers over 50.5 Monday night. it should be a shootout, and I think it will be.