MAC East futures, homer bets on Ohio U’s Week 0 CFB matchup and more: Introducing Greenberg and Jackson

Every week, longtime friends, Athletic writers and Ohio natives Jon Greenberg and Zac Jackson will be picking games and telling stories about our national pastime: betting on football. They’ll be picking college, NFL, CFL (maybe just the Grey Cup), and Ohio high school (???) games and having some fun while doing it. Here is their Week 0 edition.

Greenberg: So I’m finishing a book, one I started last year. It’s written by Larry Merchant — yes, the boxing guy — it’s called “The National Football Lottery.” The gist of it is, Merchant was a New York Post columnist in 1972 and he decided to really bet the NFL that season and turn it into a book. Later in the season, he decamped to Las Vegas and wrote about the legalized sports-gambling culture there, interviewing a number of pros like Lefty Rosenthal. If you know your movie history, you recall that Rosenthal was the real-life inspiration for Sam Rothstein in “Casino.” Of all the pithy advice Rosenthal gave Merchant, I like this line the best: “You can’t be a successful gambler when you’re young, you have to go busted a few times.”

Like me, you started young in Ohio, where gambling was a part of the culture. For me it was parlay cards and $5.50 (you added 10 percent to your bet upfront for the juice) two-teamers in high school. Do you feel like you’re smarter about gambling now or were you more clear-headed as a kid?

Jackson: A year ago, my answer would have been yes. You’re always learning, and even if you’re casually trying to pick winners today there’s so much more information available than there’s ever been. It’s all right there on your phone. It’s not even hard to watch a random Kent State or Bowling Green game anymore. There are even lines on I-AA games these days — and in two clicks you can find rosters, trends, historical outcomes and anything else even someone who’s not a lifelong degenerate would appreciate.

That said, the transfer portal has made it so I really don’t know who’s who in any phase of college football right now. I just know I’ll be excited to see it on my television Saturday afternoon, so I’ll start learning from there. And I’ll start by rooting for our alma mater, The Ohio University, at San Diego State on Saturday.

The people aren’t here for romantic tales of our youth or the high school survivor pool I ran as an adult. They want winners, and I’m starting by giving them Ohio to win the MAC East. Frankly, the rest of the division stinks, the Bobcats’ road games aren’t exactly daunting and if it comes down to the last game at Akron, there will be about 214 people there. Most of them will be wearing Ohio green — or looking to close a teaser from the Lions’ Thanksgiving game the previous day. Or both.

Greenberg: Do futures bets for the MAC East actually exist? Are you the house for these very specific wagers? The Ohio Lottery, which has its own sports betting operation, should be offering MAC-specific bets, that’s for sure.

I’m glad you mentioned the Bobcats, because I wanted to tout Ohio +3 at San Diego State as a green-tinted homer bet. I was at an awful opener two years ago when OU lost to Syracuse at home, but the Bobcats rebounded last year in a major way. If you want to take the points, be my guest. You’ll have my respect. But, as long as Snapdragon Stadium (yes, that’s the name of the Aztecs’ home field) is still standing after Hurricane Hilary, I’m going to say take Over 49.

Yes, a self-styled gambling advisor is telling you to take the over. How novel! But seriously, star quarterback Kurtis Rourke should be healthy after a season-ending ACL injury last November and he’s going to dominate this season and he’ll start with a big game in California. Kurtis, the younger brother of Jaguars viral sensation Nathan, threw for 3,200 yards last season in 11 games. You know how many yards the starting quarterback threw for when I covered the team? The answer: 1,626. But it took two seasons. (They ran the triple-option back in my day.) What do you think about this game?

Jackson: Athens, Ohio, and San Diego have a lot in common. They’re both beautiful cities that were discovered by the Germans in the early 1900s, and they’re both places I enjoy visiting.

If Rourke is healthy, Ohio can play with anyone in its weight class. As far as this week, taking the uncertainty and combining it with the cross-country trip, it’s a pass for me. Football seasons are marathons, and though I very much look forward to having this game on my television, I am fine sitting it out from a wagering standpoint. If I dive into any game this Saturday, it will be Vanderbilt -17 vs. Hawaii. I’m a big Timmy Chang fan from way back and I hope all is well out there after the recent disasters, but even Vanderbilt should be three touchdowns better than Chang’s team right now.

Seriously, folks. Pace yourselves. I have no issue saying I’m speaking from experience here. Keep it fun. Put $10 on Ohio to win the MAC East, not $500. Put $15 on the Buffalo Bulls under 6.5 wins. Don’t think you have to bet every game and every prop on Saturday just because football is back. It’s back every Saturday for the rest of the year. Run your own race — and save some pennies for mid-week MACtion later in the season.

If that’s the best wisdom I can give out in this here space, well, at least I tried. But Jon and I are going to try to do this every week, and we promise we’re try our damndest to deliver both winners AND dad jokes. But you can’t win them all, so play accordingly.

We will do NFL survivor picks. We will chase these off-radar college games. We’ll dig deeply, and we’ll have fun. And we’ll definitely keep score.

Greenberg: The second-best gambling advice is “pace yourself.” The best is “don’t bet parlays.” I treat parlays like drinking Coca-Cola (or when I’m at Halas Hall or Soldier Field, RC Cola). It’s bad for you and it shouldn’t be a regular part of a healthy lifestyle, but every so often you need one. The third-best kind of gambling advice is probably “Don’t bet. Ever.” Anytime you win as an amateur, as the saying goes, you’re just borrowing the house’s money. So treat this as fun and games, a reason to stay interested in games beyond your general purview. Plus, it’s fun to talk about close shaves and bad beats.

I have three other games this week, one of which is Vanderbilt -17. Much love to Timmy Chang, but I don’t bet on him unless it’s past my bedtime. I’ll take the Commodores, even giving that many points, until it’s SEC time.

I’ll take Navy/Notre Dame over 50.5. Last year, Notre Dame eked out a 35-32 win at home and Nebraska-Northwestern somehow combined for 59 in Ireland, so I’m good with another over. Like you, I’m interested to see how Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman performs with the Irish.

For my mid-major pick of the week: I’m going with Jacksonville State +1 against UTEP. Hard to believe this is where RichRod is coaching these days, but he’s got the Gamecocks playing well and in Conference USA!

Any big Ohio high-school games to watch out for this week?

Jackson: What makes Ohio high school football great is that most of the players are actually from Ohio. A few all-star teams are loaded up with blue-chippers who live multiple zip codes (or even area codes) away from where they go to school, and these teams are REALLY good. So it’s not really a surprise that last weekend’s event in Stark County which pitted four Ohio all-star programs against loaded teams from different places resulted in four victories for the Ohio teams.

One of those four is back this weekend on ESPN: St. Edward, which isn’t far from Cleveland, is hosting Good Counsel out of Maryland (1 p.m. ET kickoff). I’d imagine someone who’s much more in tune with the day to day of things in the high school football world put this matchup together thinking it will be competitive, and it probably will be. There aren’t many teams in Ohio that even have a prayer against St. Edward, which has one offensive lineman committed to Michigan and two committed to Ohio State.

For college Saturday, I’m only going with Hawaii and joining you on Jacksonville State +1. I visited that campus once while researching an article on Freddie Kitchens, who had just become head coach of the Browns and didn’t hold that job very long. Before we dive into next week’s full college card, I’ve got a bunch more work to do. Most things in the football world are temporary, but Week Zero is apparently going to be forever.

Greenberg: I remember when my high school started bringing in out-of-state opponents. During my senior year, Mount St. Joseph came to town from Baltimore and took an L at Harding Stadium. Many years later, I found out that White Sox pitcher, and Mount St. Joseph grad, Gavin Floyd was at that game because his brother was the kicker. He still remembered the horse on the scoreboard that breathed fire.

At some point during this exercise, we’ll have to discuss the still-underground existence of point spreads in Ohio high-school football.

But for now, good luck in Week 0. As our colleague Stewart Mandel noted on the social media site formerly known as Twitter, a lovely Week 0 factoid is that ESPN’s main game is UMass-New Mexico State while a ranked USC team plays on the sinking ship that is the Pac-12 Network.

Jackson: If UMass – New Mexico State doesn’t say that football is back, then nothing will.