Grizzlies vs. Lakers prediction: how we’re betting Tuesday’s NBA contest

Before Tuesday night’s Western Conference NBA contest tips off from Memphis, we’re set to provide our Grizzlies vs. Lakers prediction and best bet.

The Grizzlies, second in the conference, are on a four-game home winning streak, including an 18-point win on Saturday against the Denver Nuggets. The Lakers, meanwhile, have won three games in a row, but were dealt a huge injury blow on Monday as LeBron James will miss an extended period of time.

The Grizzlies are nine-point home favorites with the total set at 230.5 points. Those thinking the Lakers can extend their win streak to four can get +300 on the moneyline.

Los Angeles Lakers Team Total Under 110.5 Points (-106)

Put simply, it will come as a surprise if the Lakers are able to overcome James’ absence and surpass this total against one of the best defenses in the league.

Across the entire season, the Grizzlies rank first in adjusted defensive rating having faced the third-most difficult set of opposing offenses, per dunksandthrees.com. Memphis also hasn’t fallen off much of late, posting the fourth-best defensive rating in the association over the past 10 games, according to NBA Advanced Stats.

Plus, they just limited a Nuggets team that ranks third in adjusted offensive efficiency this season to a mere 94 points in their visit to Memphis. Now, they get to face a Lakers team that’s a full 17 spots worse than Denver in the same category.

Lastly, Memphis has played well above-average on the defensive end at home this season. Through 30 home games, head coach Taylor Jenkins’ side is conceding only 107.7 points per game, down from a season average of 112 points per contest.

Remove the games against teams with an adjusted offensive rating of 10th or better from the sample and that average drops to 99.7 points per game with the Grizzlies holding all but four of those 19 opponents under this threshold.

On the other hand, you have a Lakers offense that isn’t very good to begin with and will miss James quite a bit. The Lakers rank 20th in adjusted offensive rating for the season, but see their offensive rating drop eight points on the offensive end when James isn’t on the floor.

Examine their road results against good defenses and the results leave a lot to be encouraged.

In eight qualifying games, the Lakers have failed to clear this total in four games. However, one of the four times they did clear 111 points came as a function of overtime.

Given the sizable spread, it’s hard to expect the Lakers will have a bonus frame to help them surpass this total against a Grizzlies defense that has held six of their past seven visitors under this total.

Back the Lakers team total under so long as it remains available at -115 or better.