Grizzlies vs. Mavericks prediction: Should bettors keep fading Dallas on road?
Ahead of this Monday night Western Conference matchup in Memphis, we’re set to share our Grizzlies vs. Mavericks prediction and best bet.
The Grizzlies, who remain without both Ja Morant and Steven Adams, haven’t missed a step recently. Memphis has won two straight and five of their past six games, including a home win against the Warriors on Saturday.
For the Mavs, they’ve claimed two straight games as well, with their most recent success coming in a one-point road win Friday against the Lakers.
The Grizzlies enter as 2.5-point favorites with the total set at 229.5 points.
Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 Points (-110)
Even if both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving suit up for Dallas tonight, all signs point to betting the Grizzlies.
For these sides, their home and road splits could not be more meaningful, with Memphis qualifying as one of the — if not the — best home teams in the NBA. The Grizzlies are 29-5 straight up at home and 21-12-1 ATS on their home floor.
Meanwhile, save for their recent results, Dallas has largely struggled when playing away from home.
This season, Dallas is 14-21 straight up and 15-20 ATS when playing away from the American Airlines Arena. Additionally, they haven’t proved very profitable as an underdog either, sitting 7-17 straight up when listed as the dog.
Even if you set aside all those betting trends, the matchup still favors the Grizzlies.
Dallas’ most potent weapon is their strong offense — they sit seventh in adjusted offensive rating for the season — but that production takes a hit away from home. Per Team Rankings, Dallas is averaging two-and-a-half fewer points per game away from home.
On the flip side, the Grizzlies’ powerful unit is their defense.
For the entire season, Memphis ranks second in adjusted defensive rating having faced the fifth-hardest strength of schedule in terms of opposing offenses. Shrink the sample down to their past 10 games overall and bettors will find Memphis is still eighth in defensive rating, per NBA Advanced Stats.
That ranking is largely predicated on their defensive success at home, where they limit opponents to fewer points. Again per Team Rankings, Memphis owns the second-best home defense in terms of points per game and allow 7.7 fewer points per game at home compared to on the road.
Further, even though the personnel was somewhat different, this is a Grizzlies team that has owned the Mavs this season. In three prior head-to-head meetings — two of which came in Dallas — Memphis is 2-1 straight up.
Thus, simplify the handicap here and back the Grizzlies to secure another home win.
