Mavericks vs. Heat prediction: our best bet for Friday’s NBA contest

Before tonight’s prime-time NBA showcase in Dallas, we’re ready to provide a Mavericks vs. Heat prediction and best bet.

The Heat arrive at this contest in good form and have won five of their previous seven games to sit sixth in the Eastern Conference. As for hosts Dallas, they’ve struggled of late. The Mavericks have lost five of their past six games, dropping them to fifth in the Western Conference.

Tonight, the Heat are a one-and-a-half-point road favorite with the total set at a measly 219 points. Those interested in Dallas can take the points or +102 on the moneyline.

Miami Heat -1.5 Points (-110) vs. Dallas Mavericks

The ultimate question for this matchup is which unit wins out, the Mavericks offense or the Heat defense.

These teams are neck-and-neck in terms of their underlying ratings. Miami is 16th in adjusted net rating — 23rd in offensive rating, fourth in defensive rating — while the Mavs are only two spots behind in 18th — fifth in offensive rating, 24th in defensive rating — according to dunksandthrees.com.

But, if you look at recent results against similarly rated teams, the Heat gain an edge over Friday’s hosts. Although they’re a disappointing 4-6 straight up against teams with a top-10 offensive rating, Miami is 2-1 against such opponents in its past three games.

The Mavericks have a bigger sample to consider against top-10 defensive sides, posting a 6-10 straight up record against such opponents. However, they’ve lost four of their past five games against such opponents and are 2-8 straight up in their past 10 games against those teams.

Even more concerning is that the Mavericks’ normally reliable offense has struggled to create against strong defensive teams of late. Across those same 10 games, the Mavericks have scored only 107.4 points per game, down from a season-long average of 112.9 points per game, per basketball-reference.com.

Finally, with the Heat finally getting back to full health, their offense has steadily improved, particularly against teams possessing bad defense. Across their past seven games against teams with a bottom-10 defensive rating, Miami is 5-2 straight up and is averaging 109.1 points per game.

But, that sample includes an 87-point performance against the Pacers back on Dec. 12, so in reality the average is a tad misleading.

Given the Mavericks aren’t fully healthy for this contest — Tim Hardaway Jr., Maxi Kleber, Christian Wood and McKinley Wright IV are all dealing with injuries — I believe the Heat defense will be the deciding factor.

Back the visitors on the spread at -2 or better.