Guardians vs Astros Prediction

pickdawgz.com

31 July 2023

The Cleveland Guardians will play the Houston Astros in Game 1 of their series on Monday night at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. Cleveland is currently battling with the Twins in the AL Central, while Houston is one game behind the Rangers in the AL West. Cleveland is definitely benefitting from playing in the weakest division in baseball, as they are only 53-53, while Houston is 12 games above .500.

Guardians Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 53-53 this season and they have won four of their last six games. Cleveland is coming off of a series split with the White Sox, where they won two games and lost two games. Cleveland has a top 10 team ERA, but their hitting has let them down in quite a few games. The Cleveland pitching staff has a 3.83 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .242 opponent batting average this year. The Guardians offense has scored 441 runs with a .253 batting average and a .316 on base percentage. Jose Ramirez is batting .292 with 18 home runs and 63 RBI’s for the Guardians. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Noah Syndergaard, who will be making his first start for Cleveland this year. Syndergaard is 1-4 with a 7.16 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP over 55.1 innings pitched for the Dodgers this year.

Astros Preview

The Houston Astros are 59-47 this season and they have won four of their last seven games. Houston is coming off of a series loss to Tampa Bay, where they lost two out of three games. Houston scored 17 runs in Game 2 and out scored the Rays by a total of 22-16, but that was not enough to get the series win. The Houston pitching staff has a 3.83 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average. The Astros offense has scored 506 runs with a .250 batting average and a .319 on base percentage this year. Kyle Tucker is batting .299 with 18 home runs and 70 RBI’s for the Astros. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is J.P. France, who is 6-3 with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 84.2 innings pitched this season.

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Houston Astros Team Facts

The Astros have won six of their last seven games following a loss.
The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Monday games as home favourites against AL Central opponents.
The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last four night games between the Guardians and Astros.

Cleveland Guardians Team Facts

The Guardians have won four of their last five games as underdogs against AL West opponents following a win.
The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 night games against AL West opponents.
The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Guardians' last three games as road underdogs.
The Guardians have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs.
The Guardians have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs against American League opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

Kyle Tucker has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against the Guardians at Minute Maid Park.
Alex Bregman has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Astros' last six games as home favourites.
Yordan Alvarez has scored at least one run in each of his last eight Monday night appearances.
Alex Bregman has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros' last 11 Monday night games.
Jose Altuve has recorded two or more total bases in five of his last six appearances against AL Central opponents at Minute Maid Park.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

Josh Naylor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
Josh Naylor has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Guardians' last six night games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
Josh Bell has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Astros at Minute Maid Park.
Josh Naylor has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Guardians' last four night games against AL teams that held a winning record.
Steven Kwan has scored at least one run in four of the Guardians' last five night games against AL opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

The Houston Astros ranks 5th in the league for strikeouts this season (973).
The Houston Astros ranks T24th in the league for triples this season (9).
The Cleveland Guardians ranks 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (108).
The Cleveland Guardians ranks T3rd in the league for triples this season (21).

Pick

Houston may be coming off of a series loss, but they are getting healthier and have one of the best lineups in baseball in my opinion. Cleveland has Jose Ramirez, who has been absolutely terrific this season, but they need the rest of their lineup to hit more consistently. Cleveland is starting Noah Syndergaard, who hasn’t pitched since June 7th. Syndergaard allowed 17 earned runs in his last three starts (14 IP). Houston is starting J.P. France, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. I really like the way France has pitched for Houston and I don’t think Syndergaard is going to find much success here, so I am taking Houston -1.5 in this matchup.