Twins vs Astros Prediction

pickdawgz.com

08 October 2023

The Minnesota Twins will play the Houston Astros in Game 2 of the ALDS on Sunday night at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. Houston won the first game in this series by a score of 6-4 on Saturday afternoon.

Twins Preview

The Minnesota Twins were able to get a big series win against the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round, where they won both games by scores of 3-1 and 2-0. Minnesota didn’t start Game 1 of this series very well, as they fell down 5-0 in the fifth inning. The Twins did get a couple of home runs in the seventh inning to cut the lead to one, but that was all they could get. The Minnesota pitching staff has a 2.42 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .247 opponent batting average this postseason. The Twins offense has scored nine runs with a .228 batting average and a .349 on base percentage. Royce Lewis is batting .273 with three home runs and four RBI’s for the Twins this postseason. The projected starting pitcher for Minnesota is Pablo Lopez, who threw 5.2 innings against Toronto in the Wild Card round and allowed five hits and one run.

Astros Preview

The Houston Astros finished the regular season with a 90-72 record and they won the AL West Division title. The Astros have won five games in a row and they have a ton of momentum coming into this matchup. Houston recorded nine hits and got a great start from Verlander in their Game 1 win. The Houston pitching staff had a 3.94 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .241 opponent batting average in the regular season. The Astros offense scored 827 runs with a .259 batting average and a .331 on base percentage this year. Yordan Alvarez went 2-3 with two home runs and three RBI’s in Game 1. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Framber Valdez, who is 12-11 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 198 innings pitched this season.

Houston Astros Team Facts

The Astros have lost each of their last six night games at Minute Maid Park following a win.
The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games at Minute Maid Park following a win.
The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games as home favorites.
The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Astros' last seven games at Minute Maid Park.
The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as home favorites against American League opponents.

Minnesota Twins Team Facts

The Twins have won each of their last five games as road underdogs against AL West opponents following a loss.
The Twins have covered the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs against AL West opponents following a loss.
The Twins have led after 3 innings in each of their last six night games.
The Twins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven playoff games as underdogs.
The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Twins' last three games as road underdogs against AL West opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

Yordan Alvarez has hit at least one home run in each of the Astros' last three games as favorites against AL opponents.
Yordan Alvarez has recorded at least one RBI in eight of the Astros' last nine games as favorites against AL Central opponents.
Jose Altuve has scored at least one run in each of the Astros' last six home playoff games against AL Central opponents.
Framber Valdez has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last seven appearances with the Astros as favorites.
Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros' last 11 games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
Yordan Alvarez has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Astros' last nine games as favorites against AL Central opponents.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

Jorge Polanco has hit a home run in each of his last two road appearances against the Astros.
Kyle Farmer has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last seven appearances in night games.
Jorge Polanco has scored a run in each of his last seven appearances with the Twins as underdogs against AL West opponents.
Pablo Lopez has recorded six or more strikeouts in 11 of his 12 previous appearances with his team as a road underdog against AL opponents.
Max Kepler has recorded at least one hit in each of the Twins' last eight games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
Max Kepler has recorded at least one total base in each of the Twins' last eight games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
Willi Castro ranks 10th in the league in Steals (33) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

The Houston Astros are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
The Houston Astros rank 5th in the league for runs scored this season (827).
The Minnesota Twins rank T3rd in the league for home runs this season (233).
The Minnesota Twins rank T3rd in the league for runs allowed this season (659).

Pick

Houston jumped out to a five run lead in the first game of this series and they were able to get a good start from Verlander, who has been inconsistent this year. Minnesota only allowed one run in the two games against the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round, so they will look to get their pitching staff back on track here. The Twins are starting Pablo Lopez, who had a very solid start last time out. Houston is starting Framber Valdez, who has allowed nine earned runs in his last two starts (9.1 IP). Valdez has had some issues this season, but the Astros offense has done a good job of giving him run support. Houston has the much better lineup and I am going to take them at home here.