Guardians vs. Mets Picks, Predictions & Odds

Another week in Major League Baseball will conclude on Sunday Night Baseball, when the New York Mets host the Cleveland Guardians in the second game of a doubleheader. Read on for our Guardians vs. Mets picks based on the best MLB odds.

With Saturday's showdown getting rained out, the Cleveland Guardians and New York Mets will play two games on Sunday. The nightcap of the doubleheader will take place on Sunday Night Baseball, with New York's Justin Verlander set to face Cleveland's Shane Bieber.

Here is our best Guardians vs. Mets pick (odds via ourbest MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Guardians vs. Mets pick

Under 7.5 runs (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

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Since there are no player props available at the time of this writing, bettors have to look to the main markets to find a wager for Sunday Night Baseball. Fortunately, we see value in taking the Under 7.5 runs given our projected total score is closer to 7.

Neither of these talented pitchers have had the best start to the season, at least not by their lofty standards. Verlander is 1-2 with a 4.76 ERA in three starts for the Mets, while Bieber has a 3-2 clip with a 3.20 ERA in nine starts for the Guardians.

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According to the Statcast numbers at Baseball Savant, both pitchers are probably due for some positive regression in the near future. Verlander has an expected ERA of 4.05 and is one year removed from posting a 1.75 ERA. Bieber is giving up his highest hard-hit percentage of his career thus far at 50.9%, but his barrel rate of 8.6% is similar to his career average of 7.8%.

In the second game of a doubleheader, we are expecting both offenses to be limited. That's honestly been the case all year for the Guardians, who rank 29th in the entire league in runs scored (159) and 30th in wRC+ (79). For comparison, the Mets are 15th and 12th in those respective categories.

As a result, it should be no surprise that Cleveland has the second-highest Under rate in the league at 61.9%. But New York is not far behind with 53.3% of its games finishing below the closing total.

Bet on another low-scoring affair taking place under the bright lights of Sunday Night Baseball.

Guardians vs. Mets best odds

BetMGM (-105)

When shopping around the best sports betting apps, it is easy to see there is value in the Under at BetMGM. While most of the best sportsbooks have the Under juiced around -115, BetMGM is providing a nice discount with its -105 vig. 

That said, this line is playable at anything -110 or better at 7.5 based on our projections. Keep an eye on player props as we get closer to the start of the game, as there could be other ways to bet on a low-scoring battle.

Guardians vs. Mets odds

Guardians vs. Mets odds analysis

There might be the first game of the doubleheader to be determined, but we have already seen some movement at our best sports betting sites for Sunday Night Baseball. The Mets opened as -150 favorites to win the nightcap, but are now priced around -142 instead.

As for the total, the line has remained at 7.5 with a majority of the money coming in on the Over as of Sunday morning. The number is unlikely to move prior to first pitch, but keep an eye on the vig at the best live betting sites.

Guardians vs. Mets game info

• Date: Sunday, May 21, 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
• Location: Citi Field, Queens, NY
• Weather: 72.1 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 9.2 mph winds

Guardians-Mets pick made 05/21/2023 at 12:30 p.m. ET.

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