Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 odds, expert picks: Boston tries to send series back to Miami

It’s not over yet. With their backs against the wall, the Celtics pieced together their best performance of the Eastern Conference Finals on Tuesday, beating the Heat 116-99 in Miami and extending their season by at least another 48 hours.

Next up is a trip back to Boston for a Game 5 that will either be decisive in the Heat’s favor, or a step closer to history for the Celtics. Here’s the rundown.

During the NBA Playoffs, The Athletic’s writers will make their straight-up picks. You’ll find picks, coverage and the latest odds here. Our in-depth NBA coverage is linked below the picks.

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No. 2 Celtics vs. No. 8 Heat

8:30 p.m. ET on TNT

What are the odds for the Celtics vs. Heat?

Series: Heat lead 3-1

Series odds: Heat -275, Celtics +225

Trailing 61-52 two minutes into the third quarter of Game 4, the Celtics faced a true make-or-break moment. Roll over and trudge to defeat, as they did in Game 3, or fight back for a chance to stay alive.

On this night, they responded resoundingly by outscoring Miami 66-43 in the second half with a flurry of 3-pointers and transition run-outs. For two quarters at least, they replicated the formula that has fueled their most potent flashes of success this season.

The Heat can point to each teams’ outside shooting finally regressing — the Celtics shot 18-for-45 from 3 to Miami’s 8-for-32 — and still being in the game until midway through the fourth quarter. And the fact that they have already won two games at TD Garden in this series. And the fact that no NBA team has ever squandered a 3-0 series lead.

But the markets clearly expect Boston to extend this series at least one game longer, as evidenced by the Celtics entering Game 5 as 7.5-point favorites. It sounds silly considering the nature of the discourse around this team after Game 3, but their ability to heat up from 3-point range at any moment, the prospect of the underperforming players in their rotation returning to past form, and Jayson Tatum’s elimination game track record, give them the profile of a team that could make this series competitive again.

Strangely, though, home cooking has not been in effect for this group of late, even dating back to last year’s run to the NBA Finals. The Celtics are 4-5 straight-up and against the spread in Boston this postseason, and, dating back to last season’s second round, are 8-11 in their past 19 home playoff games.

Reversing that trend would mean saving their season and dialing up the pressure at least a couple notches on a Miami team on the doorstep of making history of their own as an eighth seed in the NBA Finals. But Jimmy Butler and company are sure to come prepared.

On the injury front, Heat guard Gabe Vincent is questionable to play after suffering a sprained ankle in the fourth quarter of Game 4.