Nuggets Open as -350 Favorites (Shorten to -400)

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The 2023 NBA finals matchup is set, with the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, the Denver Nuggets, squaring off with the No. 8 seed in the East, the Miami Heat.

As they have been in every series this postseason, the Heat come into the finals as underdogs.

Nuggets vs. Heat NBA Finals Odds

Odds above updated at 3:20 p.m. ET, Tuesday, May 30.

Not quite as lopsided as the odds prior to the East final against the Celtics, Miami opened as a +280 longshot to finish off its underdog story for the ages. Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets were -350 betting favorites to win their first NBA title, and already shortened to -400 in the past 12 hours.

Heat Pull Off Upset after Upset after Upset

The 2023 Miami Heat are just the second No. 8 seed to ever win multiple playoff series, and they almost suffered a failure-to-launch. Miami's postseason started with a loss in the 7-vs-8 play-in game to the Atlanta Hawks, and then they trailed the Chicago Bulls heading into the fourth quarter of the 8-vs-9 game two days later before a dominant final 12 minutes extended their season.

The Heat were then faced with the daunting task of taking down East No. 1 seed Milwaukee, but got lucky when Giannis Antetokounmpo suffered a back injury in Game 1 that severely limited his playing time the rest of the way.

The Heat managed to defeat the heavily-favored Bucks in just five games before sending the New York Knicks home in six in round two.

While many were predicting the Cinderella story to end when they came up against the mighty Boston Celtics in the East finals, Jimmy Butler and company proved they were just warming up.

Miami took Games 1 and 2 in Boston as huge underdogs, and then continued their perfect run of play at home in Game 3 to take a seemingly insurmountable 3-0 lead.

But Boston wasn't going away without a fight. The Celtics won Games 4 and 5 by double digits and then led Game 6 by 98-88 with less than four minutes to play. That's when Heat star Jimmy Butler woke up. Butler scored 15 fourth-quarter points, including three free throws to give Miami a one-point lead - their first lead since 11-9 - with only three seconds to play.

Finals ticket booked, right?

Not so fast. Derrick White put back a missed jumper from Marcus Smart with just a fraction of a second on the clock to force a Game 7 back in Boston.

Suddenly Miami was a massive +300 underdog to win a series they were once -1200 chalk to finish off.

But after the devastation of Game 6, Butler and the Heat showed championship mettle in Game 7. Miami raced out to an 11-point halftime lead (52-41) and, when Boston counter-punched in the third quarter by trimming the lead to seven (66-59), Caleb Martin started landing haymakers. Five points from the Nevada product in the final minute of the third stretched Miami's lead back to ten and the Heat only extended it against a weary-looking Boston squad in the fourth, emerging with a lopsided 103-84 victory.

Martin finished with 26 points, while Butler had a game-high 28.

Butler has undoubtedly been the biggest catalyst in Miami's run. The 33-year-old is averaging nearly 28.5 points per game during the playoffs to go along with 7.0 rebounds and a team-high 5.7 assists. With Tyler Herro sidelined, many assumed the Heat wouldn't have the necessary secondary scoring to make a deep run. But Martin, Gabe Vincent, and Duncan Robinson have all put in 20-plus-point performances along the way to ease the burden on Butler at the offensive end.

Nuggets Steamroll Through Western Conference

The Nuggets needed just 15 games to capture their first Western Conference championship. After dusting aside the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games in round one, they got a stiffer test from Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns during a six-game second-round series. What was expected to be a heavyweight conference final against LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers wound up a 4-0 Nuggets sweep.

If an award for playoff MVP was handed out now, it would go to two-time regular-season MVP Nikola Jokic. The Serbian is averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game. He already broke Wilt Chamberlain's 56-year-old record for triple-doubles in a single postseason with eight.

What has taken the Nuggets from good to great, however, is the fact that important members of Jokic's supporting cast are playing the best basketball of their careers. Sixth-year pro Jamal Murray, who's never averaged more than 21.2 PPG in the regular season, is putting up nearly 28 per night in the playoffs.

Murray and Aaron Gordon have also been playing solid defense throughout the postseason, leading the team with 0.111 Defensive Win Shares, which ranks 21st in the NBA in the playoffs.

Denver is 12-3 overall in the postseason and 8-0 at home.

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