NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today

sportsbookreview.com

13 November 2023

We're analyzing our favorite NBA player props and the best bets for Monday, based on the best NBA odds.

We're back for another week of NBA player props, and after a jam-packed slate on Sunday, which featured 11 games, Monday is a lot quieter with only four games on the schedule.

Monday's schedule will feature fewer games in the month of November because all the Tuesday games count toward the NBA In-Season Tournament.

On Monday, the Toronto Raptors will be facing one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA in the Washington Wizards, and while none of the Raptors players will face much resistance on the offensive end, there is one player I'm targeting in particular to go Over his points total.

Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Monday (odds via ourbest NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Monday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via BetMGM)

Monday’s NBA best bets

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Monday’s NBA player props

Pascal Siakam Over 20.5 points vs. Wizards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

When the season began, Siakam had a points total of 23.5, but over the course of the Raptors' first couple of games, we have seen that total drop for Siakam. This adjustment in his total can be attributed to the Raptors' forward adapting to the new offensive strategies implemented by first-year head coach Darko Rajakovic, leading to a 3.7% drop in his usage percentage.

While Siakam's usage percentage has decreased and his 3-point shooting numbers are below his career average, there is a specific vulnerability in the Wizards' defense that Siakam can exploit.

The Wizards are horrific with their defensive rotations and seeing backside cutters. Siakam could end up with several easy layups or dunks at the rim just off of some cuts, and this could be enough to push this total Over the number when you combine it with his normal offensive repertoire.

The flip side to this is that when you're a struggling 3-point shooter, easy buckets at the rim tend to help your jump shot as well. If Siakam gets a couple of easy layups and a dunk, we could see better shooting from him on the perimeter as well.

Siakam is projected to score 22.4 points on Monday against the Wizards, which means we can price the Over 20.5 points at -137, but it is available at FanDuel at -113. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 9%.

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Jakob Poeltl Over 1.5 assists vs. Wizards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This bet is directly related to Siakam going Over on his points prop, as I believe it's Poeltl who could be facilitating some of these easy buckets for Siakam. Poeltl should receive a lot of touches against the Wizards on Monday because he will be defended by Daniel Gafford, who has been playing deep in drop coverage, creating opportunities for the pocket pass to the opposing bigs in the pick-and-roll.

Additionally, the Raptors often involve their forwards with plenty of touches at the high post, and I expect this to be a key aspect of their offense on Monday. Considering the Wizards' difficulties in recognizing cutters and rotating on defense, Poeltl's high post touches could easily result in assists, particularly to players like Siakam.

The projection for Poeltl is 2.1 assists on Monday against the Wizards, allowing us to price the Over 1.5 assists at -150. Ensure you place this bet at BetMGM to maximize your edge, as they offer a much better price than the rest of the market. Caesars has the Over 1.5 assists trading at -145, which would nearly eliminate our entire edge with this prop.

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Darius Garland Over 6.5 assists vs. Kings (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Independent of the actual betting, Garland is one of my favorite point guards to watch in the NBA. So, when I spot an edge in his numbers for his assists prop, I have a very easy time hitting the button on this bet. I know there will only be so many opportunities throughout the season to bet on Garland, so I'm never passing up the chance.

We're not betting on Garland because we expect an up-and-down game against the Sacramento Kings. With De'Aaron Fox out due to injury, the Kings have significantly slowed down the pace of their offense.

The reason I like Garland in this spot against the Kings is that they lack rim protection, which was a weak point in their defense last season, as well. With Garland's ability to penetrate a defense, he should have several opportunities for easy assists, whether through dump-offs to Evan Mobley or taking advantage of the lob threat posed by Jarrett Allen. Both forwards have seen their points props steam toward the Over, but I prefer to approach this angle through Garland's assists prop.

Garland is projected to dish out 7.3 assists against the Kings on Monday, which means we can price the Over for 6.5 assists at -135. However, it is available at BetMGM at +100. Make sure to take advantage of this +100 price point at BetMGM; they are the only one of our best sports betting apps offering this prop at even money, as everyone else is pricing it at minus money.

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NBA best bets made 11/13/2023 at 6:30 a.m. ET