Heat vs. Celtics prediction: our best bet for Tuesday’s NBA contest

Before tipoff tonight in South Beach, we’re here to offer our Heat vs. Celtics prediction and best bet.

Boston, a team riddled with injuries at the moment, will play their second night of a back-to-back tonight after losing last night in Orlando. That loss marked the end of a nine-game winning streak for the Celtics, who still lead the Eastern Conference.

Meanwhile, the Heat won at home Sunday against the Pelicans, which qualifies as their fifth win across their last seven games.

Tonight, Miami is a four-and-a-half-point favorite against Celtics with the total set at a measly 215.5 points.

Total Under 215.5 Points (-110)

This is easily the lowest total on Tuesday’s NBA betting board, but I still think there’s room to the under.

As referenced earlier, the Celtics are facing a number of key absences tonight. Boston has ruled out Malcolm Brogdon, Al Horford and Marcus Smart while Robert Williams is also in doubt.

Those absences should disproportionately affect Boston’s offensive outputs as a majority of those players have bigger impacts on that end of the floor. Per basketball-reference.com, the Celtics own positive on/off offensive rating differentials with Smart (+2.2), Horford (+0.3) and Williams (+1.6).

Although the Celtics — a team that sits third in adjusted offensive rating, per dunksandthrees.com — still have Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, I question how much they’ll accomplish on short rest against a stout Heat defense.

Entering tonight’s game, Miami sits fourth in adjusted defensive rating and second in points per game allowed.

Further, in three games this season against the Celtics, two of which came away from home, the Heat have limited Boston to fewer than 115 non-overtime points in two of those three games, with the lone exception coming away from home.

Given Miami is a superior defensive team at home — they’re allowing 107.9 points per game at home vs. 108.4 for the entire season — my expectation is that they’ll effectively shut down a tired Boston attack.

But, this is simultaneously a Heat offense that cannot be trusted, especially against a solid Boston defense. The Heat are 27th in adjusted offensive rating and dead-last in points per game.

Plus, in 14 games this season against top-10 adjusted defensive rating sides, the Heat are averaging only 107.5 points per game, down from a season-long average of 108.6 points per game.

Factor in, too, that Boston has allowed only 111 points per game in seven contests played on the second night of a back-to-back this season, down from a season-long average of 112.2, and I expect the Heat offense won’t produce much.

Based on that reasoning, I’ll back the under here so long as it remains at 215 points or higher.