Heat vs. Kings NBA expert prediction and odds for Monday, Feb. 26 (Can Miami cover?)

The Sacramento Kings are on the second night of a back-to-back on Monday, but they’ll take on a short-handed Miami team after Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jovic, and others were suspended for their roles in an altercation with the New Orleans Pelicans. 

That has led to the Heat being set as underdogs on Monday, with Butler out and guards Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier listed as questionable. 

Sacramento dominated the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday, but can it keep it going tonight? 

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Let’s dive into the odds and my best bet for this matchup: 

Heat injury report

Kings injury report

Miami Heat

Tyler Herro: If he plays (currently questionable), Herro should be in line for a big offensive role with Butler out and Terry Rozier questionable on Monday. This season, Herro is averaging 20.8 points per game, but he’s only cleared the 20-point mark in three of his last 13 games. This could be a spot to change that. 

Sacramento Kings

Domantas Sabonis: The Kings big man has picked up a triple-double in five of his last six games, including a massive showing against the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday night. Sabonis had 19 points, 17 rebounds and 13 assists in a loss to the Heat earlier this season. 

I don’t mind taking a shot on the Heat to cover here, especially after Rozier was upgraded to questionable on Sunday. 

Miami has played well as a road underdog this season, going 11-7 against the spread, and the team is also 11-7 straight up in the games that Butler has missed. 

Meanwhile, the Kings haven’t exactly been great at home, ranking in the bottom 10 in the NBA in defensive rating at Golden 1 Center. That’s led to the team posting a 10-13 ATS record when favored at home. 

The Kings have also struggled on the second night of back-to-backs this season, going just 3-5 ATS. It’s going to be tough for Miami’s offense without Butler, but the team did handle the Kings earlier this season. 

I like taking the points in this Monday night matchup.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.