Heat vs. Kings odds, player props, prediction ATS: Miami missing key pieces Monday night

It seems like the Miami Heat have dealt with one form of adversity after another this season, so the beat goes on in Northern California on Monday night when they’ll again be shorthanded. This time, their attrition is partially self-inflicted.

Star wing Jimmy Butler, promising young forward Nikola Jovic and backup center Thomas Bryant will all be absent due to league suspensions for their roles in the brawl with the Pelicans in New Orleans on Friday. Bryant got three games for throwing a punch.

Butler was considered an instigator but only got one game and will be back Tuesday against Portland. However, his absence could be compounded by the fact Tyler Herro is questionable due to a knee injury. 

Although the Kings (33-23 SU, 29-27 ATS) are playing on the second night of a back-to-back, they have the advantage here, returning home from a Sunday night conquest in Southern California over the Clippers. Sacramento’s 123-107 upset moves it up to fifth in the ever-changing Western Conference standings, percentage points ahead of the Suns and Pelicans and a half-game up on the Mavericks.

Meanwhile, the Heat (31-25, 26-27-3) are basically even with the Orlando Magic in the Southeast Division but would have to participate in the play-in if the season ended today. However, the defending Eastern Conference champions are just 2.5 games out of the No. 4 spot entering the week. 

Handicapping Heat vs. Kings betting odds, props, and predictions requires determining whether Miami defeating the Kings without Butler is possible. It will be a tall task, but the Heat have seemingly been overcoming obstacles since October.

Heat vs. Kings odds: Point spread, moneyline, total

Here are the latest NBA betting odds for Miami vs. Sacramento:

The Heat beat the Kings 115-106 on Jan. 31 to improve to 5-2 over the last seven meetings against them. They swept the series in 2020-21 and have split in each of the last two seasons but are just 1-5 in their last six trips into California’s capital city.

Butler’s 31 points helped overcome a triple-double from Domantas Sabonis and 33 points from Keegan Murray in the first meeting. Reserve guard Josh Richardson’s 24 points and solid defense were also invaluable, but he’s now sidelined indefinitely with a shoulder dislocation.

Heat betting news: Multiple absences will test Spoelstra’s creativity

Key guys have been in and out of the Miami lineup. Only Bam Adebayo has been a constant presence, and even he’s missed 10 games. Shooter Duncan Robinson and rookie Jaime Jaquez, Jr. are the only players who have gotten into 50 or more games. Head coach Erik Spoelstra has done another great job juggling lineups and keeping Miami afloat.

After a brutal seven-game losing streak from Jan. 17-29, Miami has recovered by winning seven of nine entering Monday’s game. Prevailing in New Orleans in the face of adversity extended its winning streak on this current road trip to three games, which includes conquests in Philadelphia and Milwaukee before the break.

Butler has been great and his intensity is the key to it all for Miami, but Adebayo was the team’s lone All-Star and he’ll have to be great if the team is to pull off an upset in Sacramento. Adebayo had a triple-double against the Bucks on Feb. 13 and he had 16 points and 11 boards in the win over the Kings while on Sabonis duty. 

With the Heat likely to be cautious with Herro, there may be extended minutes ready for Terry Rozier, who is expected to see his first action since suffering a right knee sprain on Feb. 11. Combo guard Delon Wright, who was signed during the break after agreeing to a buyout with the Wizards, is also available to make his debut. 

Butler will miss his 18th game of the season, having been sidelined due to injuries and personal reasons already in 2023-24. He was absent for the wins over the 76ers and Bucks to open this trip, so the Heat are actually 10-7 on the season without their leader. Look for Haywood Highsmith, Robinson and Jaquez to see increased time. 

Kevin Love is also set for increased run with Jovic out, and it remains to be seen whether Orlando Robinson can overcome recurring back issues to give the frontcourt a lift. Spoelstra will have to get creative and likely play a lot of small ball, but Heat “culture” is all about no excuses, so they’ll go out there looking to move to 8-2 in a 10-game span. Miami is a perfect 6-0 ATS over its last six and has seen the UNDER go 9-1 over its last 10 contests.

Kings betting news: Fox, Sabonis must be great nightly

Kings point guard De’Aaron Fox wasn’t even considered for the All-Star team this year after being a first-timer and winning the inaugural Clutch Player of the Year in 2023. There’s no question he’s still an elite closer, and although he had some unexpected issues at the free-throw line and slumped some for a stretch, he’s still having a great season. 

Fox is averaging a career-best 26.9 points and is shooting 47 percent from 3-point range while making nearly three shots per game from beyond the arc, also career-highs. Over his last four games, he’s averaging 33.7 points on over 50 percent shooting and has pitched in 7.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists. Those performances have helped take down the Nuggets, Spurs, and last night, the Clippers, and kept the Kings in it in a tight loss in Phoenix.

Beating Miami would give Sacramento its second-longest win streak of the season at four prior to a grueling two-game road trip at Denver and Minnesota. After that, seven of the team’s next eight games will be at Golden 1 Center, where they’ve won 16 of 25 games entering tonight’s clash.

Domantas Sabonis extended his double-double streak to 39 against the Clippers, the longest run the NBA has seen since Love did it 53 straight times in 2011. Sabonis leads the league in double-doubles with 52 and triple-doubles with 20, so even though his All-Star snub was laughable, he continues to dominate. That must continue.

Harrison Barnes, Murray, Sixth Man of the Year frontrunner Malik Monk and starting shooting guard Kevin Huerter make up a solid supporting cast, so if Fox and Sabonis continue to flourish, Sacramento can pick enough wins to keep itself out of the play-in round and make a run at a No. 4 spot if the Clips slip. 

Defeating the shorthanded Heat is a must, and the Kings are 4-4 on the second night of back-to-backs (3-5 ATS). They’ve won and covered in this situation three straight times. The OVER is 8-2 in Sacramento’s last 10 games.

Heat vs. Kings player props picks

I see Adebayo topping 10.5 rebounds and would back the OVER on 3.5 3-pointers made for Robinson.

Sacramento’s Sabonis had his numbers set at 19.5 points, 13.5 rebounds and 9.5 assists. I don’t see him finishing with a second triple-double against Adebayo, so I’d fade his assists number and back the UNDER.

Murray will get plenty of attention from the Heat defense after he lit them up in South Florida, but his points total of 13.5 (-145) still looks too low. However, my favorite play for this game is to ride the hot hand with Fox, whose points total has been set at 24.5. Back the OVER. As stated above, he’s out of his slump and has averaged 35.5 points on the second night of Sacramento’s first two back-to-backs this month.

Heat vs. Kings prediction ATS

Miami certainly won’t throw in the towel this game and has won its fair share of contests shorthanded, doing so just before the break without Butler. I just see too many moving parts to trust Heat culture to keep them in this one, especially with Herro’s status in doubt. Rozier should return but will also have to work out rust and grow comfortable that his knee is right in the face of in-game competition.

Sacramento has been excellent on the second night of back-to-backs lately and has ramped up its consistency, knowing that how tightly packed the Western Conference is demands it. I expect the home team to take care of business by margin and light the beam.