Heat vs. Mavericks NBA expert prediction and odds for Thursday, March 7 (Trust Miami)

The Miami Heat are on the road on Thursday night as they look to climb closer to a top-four spot in the Eastern Conference standings. 

Miami takes on the Dallas Mavericks, who are hanging on in the play-in tournament conversation in the West despite having an MVP candidate in Luka Doncic on the roster. 

Dallas has struggled against teams above .500 this season, going just 15-23, so does that open the door for the Heat to pick up a win on the road?

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Let’s break down the odds and my best bet for this inter-conference battle on TNT: 

Heat injury report 

Mavericks injury report

Miami Heat

Bam Adebayo: Dallas is one of the five worst rebounding teams in the league, and that could make things easy down low on Heat big man Bam Adebayo. An All-Star this season, Adebayo is averaging career-highs in points per game (20.4) and rebounds per game (10.3). 

Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic: Doncic is an MVP candidate, but his amazing offensive showings don’t always turn out as wins for Dallas. Luka is averaging 34.6 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 9.8 assists per game on the season. He’s coming off three straight games in the high 30s, scoring 37, 38, and 39 points, yet Dallas is 0-3 in those matchups. 

Don’t look now, but the Heat are red hot coming into the final stretch of the season, winning eight of their last 10 games. 

Miami has jumped into the No. 6 spot in the East, and the team is starting to get healthier with Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier, and Bam Adebayo all in action. 

This game sets up well for Miami, who is 13-7 against the spread as a road underdog, to cover against Dallas. 

The Mavericks come into this game with a 9-12 against-the-spread record as home favorites, and the team may be overmatched on the defensive end. 

Miami is sixth in the league in net rating over its last 10 games (and fifth in the league in defensive rating). Meanwhile, the Mavericks clock in at No. 24 in defensive rating in that same stretch. 

If the Heat can play this game at their pace, I think Dallas could be in trouble at home. 

Pick: Heat +4.5 (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.