Heisman odds: Why Michigan's J.J. McCarthy leads Pac-12 quarterbacks

The Heisman Trophy rankings continue to change on a weekly basis in 2023. For much of the season, Pac-12 conference quarterbacks have led the way, be it USC's Caleb Williams or Washington's Michael Penix Jr.

But now there's a new quarterback in the lead over the Pac-12 signal callers: Michigan's J.J. McCarthy.

McCarthy's now in front by a slim margin ahead of the Pac-12's best. He'll have many opportunities to widen that lead, starting this week against Purdue.

How J.J. McCarthy became the Heisman favorite

McCarthy saw limited action as a freshman in Ann Arbor and battled incumbent starter Cade McNamara for the starting job in his sophomore season. McCarthy won the battle and led the Wolverines after the win against Hawaii last season and McNamara transferred to Iowa.

Though the Wolverines' offense averaged more than 450 yards per game last fall, the ground game was the focal point of the offense. Running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards powered the fifth-best rushing attack in the country. A undefeated regular season came to an end in the Fiesta Bowl with a 51-45 loss to TCU.

This fall, Michigan continues to be one of college football's top programs on both sides of the ball. The McCarthy-led offense is scoring more than 40 points a game halfway through the conference schedule. The Wolverines defense is allowing just 5.9 points per game, the fewest in Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) college football.

McCarthy's improved in a few key areas this fall. He's seeing career-best numbers in completion percentage (78.1%), yards per attempt (10.6), and quarterback rating (199.1). Those figures are second-best in the FBS.

The No. 2 Wolverines dismantled rival Michigan State 49-0 on the road last week in a game notable for a controversial pregame quiz including Adolf Hitler's image on video boards that Michigan State later apologized for. McCarthy had one of his best games as a passer against the Spartans. He completed 21 of 27 passes for 287 yards and four touchdowns.

The No. 2 Wolverines have key matchups against Penn State and Ohio State coming up in the next month and McCarthy could use the national spotlight to boost his Heisman chances if he continues at this pace. But if the Wolverines struggle or fall in either game, he could quickly tumble down the Heisman rankings.

How Michael Penix Jr. can become the Heisman favorite again

Penix Jr. isn't too far from McCarthy at the top of the Heisman odds. He's currently second in the rankings thanks to standout passing performances in the Washington Huskies' undefeated season. He leads the FBS in passing yards (2,576) and the Huskies are scoring 40 points per game.

Penix Jr. showed out in Washington's 36-33 win over Oregon and subsequently took over the top spot in the Heisman rankings. His four-touchdown game against the Ducks was his fourth game in 2023 with at least four passing touchdowns. Even in a potentially off game against Arizona, he still completed 30 of 40 passes for 363 yards in the Huskies' 31-24 win.

But last week against Arizona State was Penix Jr.'s worst game of the season. He completed 27 of 42 passes for a season-low 275 yards and threw two interceptions for just the second time in his Husky career. That bad game dropped him behind McCarthy in the rankings.

Penix Jr. will likely bounce back on the road against Stanford. Because he's not too far behind, Penix Jr. needs more typical games in the next three matchups against No. 22 USC, No. 13 Utah, and No. 12 Oregon State. If Washington runs the table and Penix Jr. gets back to throwing for 350-400 yards and three or more touchdowns per game, he has a very good chance of taking over as the favorite once again.

How Caleb Williams can become Heisman favorite again

One month ago, Williams had a sizable Heisman lead and looked like he could be the first player to win in consecutive years since Archie Griffin in 1974-75. He started his junior year very strong with nine touchdowns in his first two games.

When Pac-12 play started, Williams continued his sizzling pace. Four touchdowns against Stanford, five against Arizona State, six against Colorado, and three against Arizona powered the Trojans to a 6-0 record.

But Week 7 marked a drastic change. Notre Dame's defense held Williams to his worst quarterback rating this season (100) and a career-worst three interceptions in the Trojans' 48-20 loss to the Fighting Irish. He followed that with a similarly bad performance against Utah in the Trojans' 34-32 loss to the Utes.

Things aren't going to get much easier for the Trojans. They take on Cal this weekend but then finish the regular season with three consecutive games against ranked teams with matchups against No. 5 Washington, No. 9 Oregon, and No. 24 UCLA.

To get back on top, Williams needs to outshine the other high-powered offenses he'll face weekly. Outdueling Penix Jr. specifically would go a long way to catapulting him back to the top of Heisman rankings.

How Bo Nix can become the Heisman favorite

Nix matched Penix Jr. in Oregon's loss to Washington. He completed more passes, threw for more yards, and stayed turnover-free. But the Ducks' loss to the Huskies knocked him down from the top five of the Heisman rankings.

Still, Nix is having one of the best seasons as a passer in the FBS. His completion percentage (78.4%) leads the country and he's third behind LSU's Jayden Daniels and McCarthy in passer rating (180.2). He's yet to have a bad game in 2023. His worst game of the year came in that Washington game when he still completed 33 of 44 passes for 337 yards and two touchdowns.

To become the favorite, he needs to remain efficient, starting this weekend against Utah and the Utes' tough defense. If both Oregon and Washington win out and meet in the Pac-12 title game, Nix could use the game at a neutral field to beat out Penix Jr. and Williams.