Historical Tips and Trends for Betting the 2024 Risen Star Stakes

The Road to the Kentucky Derby heats up this Saturday in the “Big Easy” with the $400,000, Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes, a key prep race for the run for the roses and a local steppingstone to the $1 million Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 23.

The 1 1/8-mile Risen Star kicks off the Championship Series slate of points races for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve which means there are 105 Derby qualification points up for grabs and distributed on a 50-25-15-10-5 basis to the top five finishers. The winners of these Championship Series qualifying races basically are guaranteed a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate May 4 at Churchill Downs.

Not surprisingly, the 2024 Risen Star has drawn a deep 12-horse field with local runners squaring off against out-of-state challengers. It’s shaping up as a challenging race to handicap but a fun stakes to bet, so why not use history to help sort the contenders? After reviewing the past 15 years of Risen Star outcomes, we’ve identified seven tips and trends to guide your handicapping:

Pace advantage

It’s not impossible for stretch runners to win the Risen Star; horses like Ive Struck a Nerve (2013), International Star (2015), and Angel of Empire (2023) have rallied from the back half of the pack to prevail. But as is typical in U.S. dirt racing, the Risen Star tends to favor horses with early speed. Six of the last seven winners raced in first, second, or third after the opening half-mile, while 11 of the last 16 winners raced in the top four after half a mile.

An eye on an upset

Favorites haven’t had the best of luck in the Risen Star. Only three of the last 16 Risen Star favorites (El Padrino, War of Will, and Mandaloun) have visited the winner’s circle, a 19% win rate that ranks below the usual expected outcome for favorites.

In contrast, longshots have routinely run well in the Risen Star. Ive Struck a Nerve stunned handicappers with his 135.20-1 upset in 2013. Bravazo (21-1) and Snapper Sinclair (41.70-1) ran one-two in 2018. Modernist (12.80-1) and Angel of Empire (13.70-1) nabbed double-digit surprises in 2020 and 2023. Roiland (69.30-1) finished third in 2019, Forevamo (40.60-1) gained the runner-up spot in 2016, Albano (13.60-1) was beaten a nose in 2014, Sun Thunder (16.60-1) took second in 2023, Northern Giant (53.80-1) cracked the trifecta in 2010… you get the picture. Don’t be afraid to play longshots in the Risen Star.

Home-course advantage

Horses exiting races at Fair Grounds have done well defending their home turf in the Risen Star, claiming eight of the last 16 editions. Seven of the locally based winners — Friesan Fire, Ive Struck a Nerve, International Star, War of Will, Mr. Monomoy, Mandaloun, and Epicenter — exited the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds.

Bank on class

The Risen Star hasn’t been kind to untested horses stepping up in class. Fifteen of the last 16 Risen Star winners had previously competed in a stakes race, and 13 of them had previously run in a graded stakes. The lone exception to the stakes rule was Modernist, a maiden winner who won the slower of two Risen Star divisions in 2020.

Good form a good sign

If you’re going to challenge for victory in the Risen Star, it helps if you’re entering with a strong recent race under your belt. Fifteen of the last 16 Risen Star winners prepped with a race in January or February, and all 15 finished in the top four in their prep run. The only horse to defy this trend was future Horse of the Year Gun Runner, who won the Risen Star in his season debut.

Geroux has the hot hand

Florent Geroux has been one of the most successful jockeys at Fair Grounds in recent years, and his impressive record in the Risen Star reflects this success. Since 2016, Geroux has won the Risen Star three times aboard Gun Runner, Mr. Monomoy, and Mandaloun, suggesting bettors should sit up and take notice whenever Geroux has a mount.

Bet trainer Brad Cox

Two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox has saddled three of the last five Risen Star winners: Mr. Monomoy (2020, division one), Mandaloun (2021), and Angel of Empire (2023). Cox trainees are dangerous in the Risen Star and should not be underestimated.

Conclusions

Taking all of these trends together, the perfect candidate for Risen Star victory would be a locally based, non-favored speed horse with stakes experience, preferably exiting the Lecomte Stakes (or at least a race in January or February) and with Florent Geroux named to ride for trainer Brad Cox. None of the dozen horses entered in the 2024 Risen Star perfectly matches this profile, but #11 Track Phantomcomes close.

Track Phantom has won three straight races for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, a three-time winner of the Risen Star. After employing dueling tactics to win a Churchill Downs maiden special weight race and the Gun Runner Stakes Dec. 23 at Fair Grounds, Track Phantom led all the way to dominate the Lecomte by 2 3/4 lengths on Jan. 20.

It is possible Track Phantom will start as the Risen Star favorite, but there’s arguably a better chance bettors will get caught up supporting Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes one-two finishers #3 Honor Marieand #6 Real Men Violin, Grade 2 Remsen Stakes runner-up #4 Sierra Leone, and even #7 Hall of Fame, a flashy maiden winner at Fair Grounds on the Lecomte undercard.

But Honor Marie, Real Men Violin, and Sierra Leone haven’t raced since last year, and Hall of Fame has yet to tackle a stakes race. These are historical disadvantages, so Track Phantom comes out as the horse to beat in the Risen Star. He might not have Florent Geroux aboard, but he does have Eclipse Award-winning jockey Joel Rosario in his corner, and it’s worth noting Rosario teamed up with Asmussen to win the 2022 Risen Star aboard Epicenter.

Good luck with your handicapping, and enjoy the race!