Risen Star fair odds: Toteboard is essential arbiter to find value

Penultimate prep season is upon us, as the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes on Saturday at Fair Grounds ushers in part 1 of the Kentucky Derby championship series with 50 points to the winner.

The raise in the stakes for this stakes attracted a field befitting its stature on the road to the world's most famous horse race. There have been 96 nine-furlong races on dirt at Fair Grounds in the past century, and only six through Monday had at least 12 horses, including last year's Risen Star, which Angel of Empire won as one of 14 in the gate.

This year's edition drew 12, and the dozen are so evenly matched that it is impossible to have a strong conviction about how to play this race without seeing how the board shakes out.

The morning line has Lecomte Stakes (G3) winner no. 11 Track Phantom as the projected public choice with Remsen runner-up no. 4 Sierra Leone next. Then Smarty Jones Stakes winner no. 8 Catching Freedom is the third choice, and Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) winner no. 3 Honor Marie and flashy maiden winner no. 7 Hall of Fame are co-fourth choices.

The Horse Racing Nation morning line, however, has Hall of Fame as the most likely favorite. That's quite a discrepancy in the ordinal rankings, and without knowing where that will shake out when the gates open, I can't say much more than "bet the overlays."

The Risen Star is the last of 14 races and the anchor leg of an all-stakes Pick 5 that begins with race 10. From a multi-race standpoint, decisions must be made in terms of which of the aforementioned top five choices land on the ticket. 

I have Sierra Leone as the most likely winner, but it's a tepid choice and at 4-1 on my fair odds is no guarantee to offer value. But I like his chances rolling late, assuming someone runs with Track Phantom early. Post 11 is no picnic for the morning line favorite, however, and both no. 9 Cardinale and no. 12 Bee Dancer have an ability to show early zip and might have to from the outside.

One horse I am excited about, at least from a vertical betting standpoint, is no. 2 Awesome Ruta, who is 30-1 on the morning line but I see has having a 15-1 chance. That's not as big an overlay as a double denominator would indicate, but with a 12-horse field and the long shot I like the best, that is definitely the horse I want to sneak into the mix somewhow.

We'll be back later in the week for a look at the all-stakes Pick 5 and hopefully some coalesced opinions on how to manage the contenders in this extremely competitive Kentucky Derby prep.