Kentucky Derby prep: Risen Star Stakes odds and analysis

Saturday’s Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star is the third of four official points races at Fair Grounds on the road to Kentucky Derby 2023. The 1 1/8-mile race drew a full field of 14 3-year-olds who will compete for the 50-20-15-10-5 points that go to the top five finishers that are eligible.

Trainers Brad Cox and Steve Asmussen each have three horses in the race. Cox will be trying to win his sixth Derby points race, and Asmussen seeks his first victory on the 2023 Derby trail. Six horses in the Risen Star were part of last weekend’s Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 4 as individual betting interests. Five horses in the field already have earned Derby points, led by Curly Jack in sixth on the leaderboard with 17.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Risen Star, which is scheduled as race 13 of 13 with post time set for 7:14 p.m. EST. Each horse is shown with the official track morning-line odds from Fair Grounds, his sire, trainer, jockey, record and purse earnings.

1. Quiet as Midnight (50-1, Midnight Lute, Benard Chatters, Emanuel Nieves, 3: 1-1-0, $20,200) Quiet as Midnight ships across Louisiana from Delta Downs, where he raced three times. He broke his maiden last year in his second start for a $20,000 tag and was second in an allowance last month on a sloppy track. Toss.

2. Single Ruler (30-1, Empire Maker – Keith Desormeaux, Jose Riquelme, 5: 1-0-1, $47,974) Single Ruler needed five starts to break his maiden, which he did at Fair Grounds last month going two turns at odds of 18-1. Toss.

3. Shaq Diesel (30-1 – Khozan – Renaldo Richards, Adam Beschizza – 7: 3-0-1 - $70,500) Shaq Diesel ships from Tampa Bay Downs to Louisiana after seven starts in Florida. His first four races were at Gulfstream Park where he won a $50,000 maiden claimer in his third start and then won a starter allowance going seven furlongs. At Tampa he was fourth in the Inaugural and then was third in the Pasco. His third win was in a starter allowance going two turns. Toss.

4. Determinedly (8-1, Cairo Prince, Mark Casse, Reylu Gutierrez, 8: 2-2-1 - $188,950) Determinedly picked up three Derby points when he finished third in the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds in December. Last month he won an allowance on the front end with Lasix for the first time, beating two horses that are in this field. Early in his career he made three starts on the turf. A fast pace is expected in the Risen Star, which would challenge Determinedly’s running style. Toss.

5. Harlocap (8-1, Justify, Steve Asmussen, John Velazquez, 3: 1-2-0, $67,600) Harlocap was recently transferred from the barn of Bob Baffert to Steve Asmussen. This past weekend he recorded a bullet six-furlong work at Santa Anita. The $400,000 2-year-old purchase broke his maiden for Baffert in his third try after a pair of second-place finishes. Last month, he got his first victory while racing on the lead at Santa Anita going two turns as an even-money favorite. Toss.

6. Angel of Empire (8-1, Classic Empire, Brad Cox, Luis Saez, 4: 2-1-0, $90,000) Angel of Empire was last seen in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn where he finished second behind his stablemate Victory Formation and that got him four Derby points. His two wins were at Hoosier Indianapolis in his August debut and then in a November allowance with a late run going two turns. Use underneath.

7. Sun Thunder (15-1, Into Mischief, Ken McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 3: 1-0-1, $101,250) Sun Thunder broke his maiden in his second start by more than eight lengths in a one-mile allowance at Oaklawn on Dec. 31. His lone start this year was in the Southwest (G3), where he ran fourth and earned four Derby points. Toss.

8. Tapit’s Conquest (6-1, Tapit, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 3: 1-2-0, $103,000) Tapit’s Conquest is the second Brad Cox runner. After a second in his Saratoga debut at odds of 16-1, the son of Tapit broke his maiden at Churchill in October by more than three lengths going two turns. He was the even-money favorite and finished second by a neck in that aforementioned allowance race at Fair Grounds that was won by Determinedly. Tapit’s Conquest has shown versatility with two late-running efforts and one where he pressed the pace. Use underneath.

9. Curly Jack (8-1, Good Magic, Tom Amoss, Edgar Morales, 6: 2-2-0, $417,580) Curly Jack broke his maiden at Saratoga at first asking and then moved right into stakes company, where he ran five times. He was second in the Juvenile at Ellis Park and then won the Iroquois (G3). In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he was fifth and then was second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) behind repeat Derby trail winner Instant Coffee. His last three starts were in Derby qualifiers that yielded 17 points. He will have to come back from a November layoff, and maybe that is why his morning line odds are 8-1. Trainer Tom Amoss is winning at a 31 percent clip at the Fair Grounds. Top choice.

10. Two Phil’s (8-1, Hard Spun, Larry Rivelli, Jareth Loveberry, 6: 3-1-0, $235,450) Two Phil’s probably ran the best race of his career when he battled gamely down the stretch in the Lecomte (G3) behind Instant Coffee, who is second on the current Derby points list. Two Phil’s had a significant increase in speed figures in the Lecomte and earned 8 Derby points. Use underneath.

11. Silver Heist (12-1, Tapit, Steve Asmussen, Corey Lanerie, 2: 1-0-1, $43,150) Silver Heist won his first start in a December maiden race at Fair Grounds, where he broke a bit slowly and then rallied to get the lead at the top of the stretch in a sprint. He returned in an allowance going two turns and was third in the allowance with Determinedly and Tapit’s Conquest. He has a pair of works at the New Orleans track since that January start. Toss.

12. Crupi (15-1, Curlin, Todd Pletcher, James Graham, 5: M-2-3, $69,600) Crupi is still a maiden after five starts with plenty of support at the windows for this Todd Pletcher runner. He was third in his first three races and then was second twice. All five of those races turned out to have strong fields that had impressive winners from top barns. His narrow loss in his January start earned the third highest speed figure in this large Risen Star field. Live long shot.

13. Victory Formation (3-1, Tapwrit, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 3: 3-0-0, $282,285) Victory Formation is unbeaten in three starts for Brad Cox after moving from a maiden win at Keeneland in October to a Churchill allowance and then a Derby trail score in the Smarty Jones, which earned him 10 Derby points. For a horse who has raced with the early pace three times, post position 13 has to be a concern especially with the projected fast pace. His Smarty Jones victory was visually impressive and produced the top speed figure in this field. The one to beat.

14. Private Creed (12-1, Jimmy Creed, Steve Asmussen, Tyler Gaffalione, 6: 3-1-2, $618,913) Private Creed is by far the leading money earner in this field, but all that money came from six starts on the turf. He won the $500,000 Juvenile Sprint at Kentucky Downs and was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. In his January start, Private Creed went two turns for the first time in the Texas Turf Mile at Sam Houston when he set the pace and lost the head bob. He will have to go nine furlongs now and switch from turf to dirt on the far outside. Toss.

Summary: Post position became a significant factor in the Risen Star when the undefeated morning-line favorite Victory Formation drew stall 13 in the starting gate. The Brad Cox trainee has tactical speed, which gives him a chance to get into a spot near the lead. But from the far outside, everything must go smoothly.

Curly Jack had an excellent 2-year-old campaign, which included a win on the Derby trail and a second in the Kentucky Jockey Club. His trainer Tom Amoss said inexperience was the cause of his disappointing races. He won his debut race last year, and he should come out running to start 2023.

Crupi is a live long shot from the barn of Todd Pletcher who could produce big payouts in the exacta and trifecta. Still a maiden after five starts, Crupi ran his best race last time after facing strong fields and talented winners in all of his races. It is not often that you get double-digit odds on a Pletcher horse on the Derby trail.