Holiday Bowl Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2022

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19 January 2023

Holiday Bowl Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2022

Oregon's offense got well into the 40s in a majority of its games this season and now gets a favorable matchup against a horrid UNC defense — one that's also missing three key members of its secondary. We break it all down in our Holiday Bowl picks below.

Dan Lanning’s debut season with the Oregon Ducks looked like it may end up in the Pac-12 title game, but a squandered 31-17 fourth-quarter lead to Oregon State allowed Utah to sneak in for the second straight year.

Otherwise, this season was mostly a success. With Bo Nix under center, the Ducks boasted one of the nation’s most electric offenses, pushing this Holiday Bowl total all the way up to 74.5.

College football odds have Oregon listed as heavy 14.5-point favorites over North Carolina — the biggest bowl game spread alongside LSU -14.5. Find out where the best value lies in our free college football picks below.

Oregon vs North Carolina best odds

Oregon vs North Carolina picks and predictions

Whatever preexisting notions you may have had about Bo Nix, his first year under center for the Oregon Ducks has undeniably been a success.

The Auburn transfer racked up 41 total touchdowns (27 passing, 14 rushing) against just six interceptions, leading an offense that finished inside the Top 10 in total offense (507.8 yards per game, fourth) and scoring offense (39.7 points per game, fourth).

With some opt-outs and transfers in the mix, I'm staying away from one of bowl season's largest spreads and instead targeting Oregon's team total. The books who've released a number have it at 44.5, but Pinnacle still has 41.5 juiced to the Over at -151. To stay under the key football number of 42, that's what I'm rolling with.

With totals of 34, 20, and 24, the Ducks haven't reached 40 points in any of their last three games. However, they did so in each of their eight prior games, went Over this number in seven of those, and averaged 48.1 ppg during that span with a high of 70 against Eastern Washington.

Considering just how poor this Tar Heels defense is, I'm expecting something much closer to the latter on Wednesday. No matter which way you slice it, this is one of the worst defenses in the nation. Ranking 114th in total defense and 121st in passing defense, I'm not expecting the boys in blue to put up much of a fight on that end of the ball.

Furthermore, UNC will also be without two top corners in Storm Duck and Tony Grimes in addition to starting safety Cam'Ron Kelly... not a very good recipe for slowing down the Ducks.

Oregon did lose Dont'e Thornton (17 catches, 366 yards) to the transfer portal but otherwise, this offense is at basically full strength with all of its key offensive weapons hanging around for the finale. Anything less than a vintage Bo Nix performance and the Ducks finishing well into the 40s would be a shock to me.

My best bet: Oregon team total Over 41.5 (-153 at Pinnacle)

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Oregon vs North Carolina spread analysis

Oregon's season started with a gut-punch from the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs — a 49-3 romp in what was essentially a road game (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta). However, the Ducks got back in the saddle to the tune of eight straight wins before dropping two of their last three, ultimately falling just short of the Pac-12 title game.

They covered the spread in eight of 12 games this season and went 6-2 ATS over their last eight. As discussed in the best bet above, the Bo Nix-led offense did the heavy lifting with the defense consistently giving up a ton of yards (75th in total defense) and points (76th).

The very same could be said for Drake Maye and the Tar Heels, who balanced out one of the worst defenses in all of college football with a similarly-lethal passing attack that averaged 35 ppg and ranked ninth in passing yards per contest (317.2).

Despite a 9-4 straight-up record, UNC covered in just six games this season and is now being given 14.5 points against Oregon on Wednesday. I'd lean toward taking all of those points in what projects to be a back-and-forth affair but am certainly not rushing out to bet on it.

Oregon vs North Carolina Over/Under analysis

What do you get when two great offenses play two bad defenses? A total pushing 75 at most books, almost five points higher than the opening number of 70.5

We've talked at length about the matchup between Oregon's offense and UNC's defense but the reverse could be just as exciting. Oregon's defense didn't make a habit of stopping anyone this season while Drake Maye burned defenses all season long.

The freshman signal-caller threw for 4,115 yards and 35 TDs and proved to be a formidable dual-threat option with an additional 653 yards and seven scores coming on the ground.

I don't see how either of these defenses stops the opposing offense with any real success. The line is sky high but for good reason... for me, it's Over or nothing.

In-play microbetting trends for Oregon vs North Carolina

The best betting sites for microbetting college football (with their odds powered by Simplebet):

Here are the next drive results when each team started at the 25-yard line (for all drives available to bet) for both the two-way betting market and the four-way betting market: