Horse racing: Picking a winner for each race at New Zealand Trotting Cup day
Big fields and plenty of the favourites copping difficult draws have produced a New Zealand Trotting Cup day at Addington with more value than usual. Unbeaten filly Millwood Nike may start the only odds-on favourite all day, so here is a race-by-race look at the best plays on harness racing’s biggest day.
Race 1: Tricky trot to start, with Masterly (4) hard to catch if he leads. Value lies in That’s What We Do (17), as 3200m gives him time to overcame handicap.
Race 2: The good 3-year-olds tend to be too good for grade horses, and with Charlie Brown (6), who has been luckless in elite company, better drawn than Jolimont (10), he gets the nod.
Race 3: Genius trainer Paul Nairn has made a special boot to help Confessional (5) trot better under pressure, so he is top pick, but his stablemate Outtamyway (2) the cover bet after unusual campaign.
Race 4: Tough race but Amaretto Bromac (14) has a big motor and small brain. She could blow them away and Borrisokane (13) the logical other coming out of good 3-year-old races and winning at Cup trials. Mandalay Bay (16) smart horse in new stable but price too short.
Race 5; One of the two stars, Merlin (8) or Don’t Stop Dreaming (9), should win, and it will come down to which gets the best run. Merlin paying more, so the better bet.
Race 6: Wag Star (7) has been brilliant and that may earn him enough respect to get the lead and win. Sooner The Better (12) looks a great place/Top 4 bet if they go hard.
Race 7: If they are ever going to beat Millwood Nike (15), it will be today. Could settle a long way off leaders, which is why you are getting $1.80. She might still win because she is a mini-freak but Aardiebytheseaside (2) a great place option.
Race 8: Basically a who-steps-best-can-win 2000m standing start, which are not great races. Good time to go have a cup of tea, but if you want an interest bet, maybe split Aardiebythehill (1) and Love N The Port (4).
Race 9: This depends entirely on how hard they go early. If not frenetic, then Vessem (7) with the blinds and Blair Orange can win, but if they go nuts, then Cold Chisel (12) or Chase A Dream (15) could overpower tiring leaders.
Race 10: Not a race to be diving too deeply into, as some of these could be in this same grade Cup Day next year. But Elizabeth Hill (7) won’t be and has had a string of trials to get ready and been well behaved. Not foolproof but the best horse here.
Race 12: Not easy but both Dalton Shard (6) and Smoke On The Water (8) were excellent last time, so they make sense in finicky way to end the day.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
