Horse racing tips and best bets for Morphettville and Belmont
South Aussie racing returns to Morphettville on Saturday.
South Aussie form student Heath Pope believes a horse plummeting in grade "is impossible not to speck" at Morphettville on Saturday.
for the Belmont fields, form, speed maps, odds comparison and more.
Here are this week's tips.
HEATH POPE – MORPHETTVILLE
JACK THE LAD (Race 2 No 5) Trialled up well leading into the first-up flop when he didn't handle the heavy (10) rated track in a much tougher Benchmark 84 race. Form when last in work, was competitive, again against much better horses than he meets here. In a race devoid of much pace I wouldn't be surprised to see him settling a lot closer. Plummeting back into Benchmark 68 company means he is impossible not to speck at the big opening odds. Rates as a big improver on Saturday and he's overs at anything north of $8. BET: EACH-WAY
BLACKCOMB (Race 4 No 9) Danny O'Brien-trained Victorian visitor that hasn't lived up to her early promise however she has indicated improvement this campaign. Apart from getting too far back two starts back her form this prep reads terrific for a race of this nature. Remembering she has raced in four black-type races yet now in a South Australian Benchmark 70 she gets in 1kg above the limit. She should relish the step up to this trip and I expect her to be hard to hold out given even luck. Rates at $4. BET: WIN
SHOW SOME DECORUM (Race 7 No 7) Anthony and Sam Freedman galloper that is also an acceptot at The Valley, however he has 63kg with no rider declared in Melbourne so I expect him to resume here. A proven first-up flyer (5:3-0-1) that appears perfectly placed, getting in with just 52kg after the 3kg claim for Alana Livesey. In a race devoid of pace, he maps to enjoy the ideal run and given even luck I can't see how these will run him down. Real keen and best bet of the day. Rates a clear top pick at $2.80. BET: WIN
SABERMETRIC (Race 9 No 6) Previously undefeated fresh galloper resuming. Profiles almost identically to when he resumed last campaign and that day je blew his rivals out of the water by an ever-widening eight lengths. Comes off a similar break carrying just 1kg extra on same track against similar grade on a soft rated track. If he can reproduce the same rating he did first-up last prep, or even slightly less, he will be winning this. Rates a cracking play at $5 or better. BET: EACH-WAY
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AARON MILLS – BELMONT
SONGAA (Race 3 No 7) This one has been flying since coming to WA and joining the Mitchell Pateman stable, winning both of its starts while unleashing dominant finishing bursts. Not much changes for Songaa in this except for the rise in class which sees it in beautifully at the weights with just 55.5kg for regular rider Holly Watson. The trainer mentioned some fetlock issues after Songaa's latest victory so if anything a wet track should help with that, as will another three weeks between runs to help him be at his very best. There looks to be good pace in this so expect Songaa to drift into the back half before running on strongly when the leaders begin to tire. BET: WIN
SAPPHIRE STREET (Race 4 No 2) There's plenty of interest in first-starter Almighty Class however he will need to be quite smart to knock off this Dan Morton-trained filly. Sapphire Street wasn't quite up to the best juveniles in her initial prep yet still ran some great races including finishing runner-up at the midweeks while recording the best closing sectionals of the day. She again recorded meeting-best closing splits first-up this time in work to break through here two weeks ago, looking every bit like the rise to 1200 metres would be ideal. She is in good hands with jockey Brad Parnham and from barrier five maps for a beautiful cart up midfield. BET: WIN
DUCHESS OF GOSSIP (Race 5 No 2) Even without the services of William Pike this incredibly talented filly should be too good again. Duchess Of Gossip has won its past two starts in emphatic fashion against older horses and is perfectly placed to bring up the hat-trick back against her own age. Her closing splits in those two victories have been among the best of the day and tower above what can be expected from rivals in this race. Strong speed comes from Universal Flair, Kelvinater and others so jockey Holly Watson is likely to park Duchess Of Gossip just off the pace before unleashing a dominant finish wider out in the straight. Looks a good thing. BET: WIN
MEGAZONE (Race 7 No 5) Megazone is rising eight but remains highly consistent and will be ready to show its best after two runs back from a spell. He put the writing on the wall last time out finishing a close sixth behind Top Of The Pops and Vast Art which would start favourite in this. Megazone is yet to win at this track but has run some great races here in the past including on wet tracks, so the sting out underfoot doesn't look an issue. The best bit is he looks capable of settling closer than the speedmap suggests and well in front of his nearest rivals. BET: EACH-WAY
