Horse racing tips: Best bets for Kembla with Shayne O’Cass

Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Kembla on Tuesday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

KEMBLA GRANGE

BEST BET

Race 4 No. 11: SALAASEL

A regally-bred Fastnet Rock filly from the Peter and Paul Snowden stable who was third to Giga Kick on debut. Loaded with talent.

NEXT BEST

Race 6 No. 5: SAVAGAL

The Chris Waller-trained mare is straight off the Savabeel assembly-line. This $500,000 yearling could be in her best preparation yet.

VALUE BET

Race 3 No. 10: ARTS

An Edward Cummings-trained filly who should relish the step up to 2000m. Has a future.

BEST EXOTIC

Quinella Race 2 Nos. 2, 10

QUADDIE

Race 4: 4,5,7,11

Race 5: 3,4,5,8

Race 6: 1,5,8,12

Race 7: 6,10,11,12

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Sam Clipperton will take some beating in the TAB Jockeys Challenge barring any scratchings.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR KEMBLA

RACE 1

Breadcrumbs has finished second at four of her eight starts; she was third once as well. Originally trained by Danny O’Brien, Breadcrumbs has been with Nathan Doyle for her last two runs where she was runner-up in both and finds the right race to breakthrough. Right draw too. Rare Beauty has the home-ground advantage. The Robert and Luke Price-trained mare, like Breadcrumbs, is also by Headwater and finished second at her most recent outing as well. She’s Jessie has placed at four of her six starts and is very fast. Keys To Love remains winless after 20 starts but he has placed six times and has been a tad unlucky from time to time. Placed three from eight on Heavy.

Bet: Breadcrumbs to win

RACE 2

Allhallowedtide is out of a true broodmare gem in Halloween who has thrown four stakes-winners including All Hallows’ Eve and All Saints’ Eve, who were also trained by John O’Shea. This gelding is by Savabeel which makes him the brother to NZ 1000 Guineas winner, Hasabro. As for the horse himself, he is on an upward trajectory and looks the winner on paper. We’ve Gotta Deel is well placed again but just not sure he has the scope and talent to match O’Shea’s galloper. Genetic Freak wasn’t entirely hopeless in his two city runs. Locally-trained gelding Blackall is a 23-start maiden but has placed at three of five on Heavy.

Bet: Allhallowtide to win

RACE 3

Arts is a Newhaven Park-bred filly by their resident NZ Guineas winner Xtravagant. Art’s grandam is the former handy mare Bumptious who was bred by T.J. Smith. Arts is trained by a Cummings, in this case, it’s Edward who thought enough of her to have a dash at the Kembla Grange Classic at her second start. Okay, she failed on the day but her trial since was far more like her real self. Cut On A Dime, a $1 million yearling, will find this a million times easier than his last couple in the Randwick Guineas and Phar Lap Stakes. Blueblood Keneally (I Am Invincible - Nevis) has won once; and it was on a Heavy 8 in town.

Bet: Arts to win, quinella 2, 10, box trifecta 2, 3, 5, 10

RACE 4

Salaasel has a future well beyond a provincial maiden. Just for starters, she was a closing third on debut at Flemington to Giga Kick no less. Born, bred and retained by Emirates Park, this Fastnet Rock filly is a granddaughter of 2002 Fernhill winner Salameh, herself a daughter of Show Dancing. Her recent trials have been sublime. Speaking of trials, Choice Legend has been trialling like a ‘good horse’. The Les Bridge/Bon Ho filly was bought for $260,000 at the Melbourne Premier Sale in 2021. Smashing type and she is just your ‘ready-made racehorse’. Lipscani ran a creditable third on debut at Canterbury on Feb 17 and has trialled nicely since.

Bet: Salaasel to win

RACE 5

Euros is a cleverly-named daughter of Capitalist and Gone To Paris. This B K Racing/Joe Pride filly is quite handy. She has raced five times so far for two wins, one at Newcastle, the other at Canterbury on Jan 1. She hasn’t been seen since, except of course that pleasing third in a recent trial at Warwick Farm. Thalursian, the horse formerly known as Winners Bet, makes his stable debut for Team Hawkes. His Victorian form is pretty solid actually and best of all, the horse has placed at his only two runs on Heavy tracks. Sports Legend was dominant from the front when he won on the Kensington track 20-days ago.

Bet: Euros to win

RACE 6

Savagal is a Black Booker for the short to mid and even longer term whether she comes here or not. She is a Savabeel from nose to tail, you could pick her from a mile away as being by one. On top of that, her dam is Valley Girl who won the Group 1 Herbie Dyke in NZ and was runner-up to Single Gaze in the Vinery at Rosehill. No wonder Savagal made $500,000 at Karaka in 2020. Her best is yet to come. Miss Faberge has only won $60,000 on the racetrack but she is a priceless broodmare when the time comes, being out of Mica’s Pride (dam of Criterion et al). Finally got the monkey off her back with a predictable but still highly impressive win at Goulburn. Likely to go without Evening Bride. Could pay to follow at Hawkesbury on Thursday. Mistress, the More Than Ready filly out of Toorak winner Allez Wonder is a major player. Chilko Lake has won two of three on Heavy, one of those was here at Kembla.

Bet: Savagal to win

RACE 7

Warby is out of a mare called Speedboat and is named after Ken Warby who was the fastest man on water there for a while. As for the four-legged Warby, he will go down in history as grossly unlucky not to have won the Black Opal on debut. Fast forward to more recent times and the Maher/Eustace gelding was super impressive winning at Hawkesbury last start. Sorgente is a lightly-raced son of Headwater with ‘city talent’. He did some good things in his first two preps and Waller horses never go backwards; point being, this might be his best prep yet. Chopin caught the eye when closing fast from the back first-up at Gosford. Devil Dan could be the blowout here at home, especially if we lose a few as expected.