Horse racing tips: Best bets for Muswellbrook, Sapphire Coast with Mitch Cohen

Form analyst Mitch Cohen gives his best bets and runs the rule over the Quaddie legs at Muswellbrook and Sapphire Coast.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

MUSWELLBROOK

BEST BET

Race 6 No. 3: ICE IN VANCOUVER

The Cody Morgan-trained gelding flies fresh and can win again. Gets the gun draw and has trialled well.

NEXT BEST

Race 7 No. 4: HOSIER

Won a similar race first-up last preparation to get in the Big Dance and can do it again.

VALUE BET

Race 11 No. 8: JOHNNY DASH

Talented enough type returning from a break. A winner first-up last preparation, he’s over the odds.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 6, 8, 13

Race 6: 3, 5

Race 7: 2, 4, 7, 10, 13

Race 8: 3, 4, 11

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Gun apprentice Dylan Gibbons will chase a maiden Group 1 on Saturday but can win the Muswellbrook Cup first.

SAPPHIRE COAST

BEST BET

Race 1 No. 2: VINOLASS

Let’s build a bank early. This progressive filly can win again and should be the anchor in multis across the card.

NEXT BEST

Race 5 No. 4: SEMPER FORTIS

Ex-Victorian having his first start for a new trainer. A winner over the mile in city grade in his former life.

VALUE BEST

Race 8 No. 15: PORT DOUGLAS

Ready to improve off a solid first-up showing at the same venue.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR MUSWELLBROOK

RACE 5

Ceasefire comes into this a month between runs. The Paul Messara-trained gelding was a close second at Gosford and can go one better here. He’s a two-time winner second-up and can capitalise on a favourable gate in barrier 6. Border Control finished among the placings in a Midway race last start so that has to be good enough form for this. The 15 draw could be the thorn in his side though. Super is third-up now with a couple of nice runs under his belt.

Verdict: Ceasefire to win

RACE 6

Ice In Vancouver is a flying machine fresh and can add to his first-up record in the feature sprint. He’s won three times first-up before and an excellent recent trial indicates he will ready to go again. Koby Jennings can make the most of a perfect draw in barrier two and win. Tucson Valley is a leader that will give him something to catch. Aaron Bullock can overcome the tricky gate by going forward and setting the tempo. Fumiko has to be a hope after she flashed home in city grade last time.

Verdict: Ice In Vancouver to win

RACE 7

Hosier is raced by Melbourne Cup-winning owner Lloyd Williams but can win a different kind of Cup on Friday. The Kris Lees-trained galloper won the Coffs Harbour Cup first-up last preparation over the mile and expecting him to do the same here over 1500m. Should get every possible chance from the inside draw. Journalism is racing in terrific form after giving his rivals a lesson at Kensington last time. With that said, Winona Costin will have her work cut out for her from the draw. Kokoro is rock hard fit now and rarely runs a bad race.

Verdict: Hosier to win

RACE 8

Johnny Dash can make a winning return from a break. The I Am Invincible gelding won first-up last preparation and has trialled well in the lead up to his latest fresh run. Expecting the Annabel Neasham-trained galloper to land near the speed and be too strong late. Climate Control is out of the former stakes mare Avoid Lightning and is a nice enough type himself. Got the maiden out of the way at Coonamble last time and continues to race consistently. Restrictions has settled in well back after moving over from Hong Kong. He’s a chance if he can overcome the gate.

Verdict: Johnny Dash to win

SAPPHIRE COAST

RACE 5

Semper Fortis is a former Victorian galloper that was with Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young but is now with James Ponsonby. The Tavistock gelding is first-up over the mile but has been given a quiet trial on his new home deck of Orange. He’s a winner at the same trip in city grade and trusting that’s good enough form to win this. Great Week got the maiden out of the way at Wagga last time. A repeat of that performance should have him among the main chances again. Red Redemption is yet to win but has been around the money a bunch in recent times.

Verdict: Semper Fortis to win

RACE 6

Headstock got a much needed confidence boosting win at Moruya last time after placing in five of his first eight runs. The Robert and Luke Price-trained gelding can go on with it here from a good draw in barrier three and at the same trip. This is a winnable Benchmark 58. Manzoni is a ex-Godolphin galloper that made a perfect start to life with Natalie Jarvis with a win at Moruya. The 11 draw makes life harder this time but he’s talented enough for country grade. Blaazay rarely puts in a bad run and Ruby Haylock’s claim helps his cause.

Verdict: Headstock to win

RACE 7

Breakaway Week has placed in her past four runs and can break that run here with a win. She finished second at this track and trip twice in a row before going to Canberra and running third. The Dissident mare is deep in her prep now but should get every hope from barrier one. Quizy is a lightly-raced six-year-old lining up for just his fourth start. His first-up third should give him a solid base to improve off. Fairness Is Best finds an easier maiden than he faced last time.

Verdict: Breakaway Week to win

RACE 8

Port Douglas can give Matthew Kelley a big boost before he chases Country Championships glory on Saturday. The Adelaide gelding returned from a fresh up with an improved third here and while he steps up in grade, he is drawn well and enjoys soft conditions. Wagunda will jump from his outside and has to be one of his main rivals. The son of Wandjina broke his maiden nicely last time and steps into benchmark grade now. Ditto with last start winner Funky Little Shack. He won stylishly here last time and should settle close to the speed again.