Horse racing tips: James Boyle's best bets for Saturday
13:35 Ascot – Dream Composer – 1pt @ 12/1
Dream Composer was disappointing the last twice and it's possible that the edge has gone off him, so there are additional risks attached. On the other hand, supporters could be rewarded at a nice price if all is well as he’s a very talented sprinter who has progressed with each season of racing.
He already has wins this term off 91, 93 & 96 and runs off the latter mark today having only gone up a pound for his Sandown success over Korker. His performances since have seen that pound handed back and there’s no question that, at his best, he’s capable of mixing it with any of these.
At Goodwood last time, he got no cover down the middle of the track and the combination of both led to one of his lesser efforts. The time before, over this C&D, he had a bad draw in a pace race, got hampered and couldn’t land any sort of meaningful blow. It’s easy enough to forgive them.
With Tees Spirit and Michaela’s Boy lining up, and both drawn nearby, there should be an honest gallop for him to sit off and Frankie Dettori’s style of riding will suit. He’s always a positive here and can help Dream Composer to find the rhythm he needs in order to produce his true level once more.
14:10 Ascot – Alright Sunshine – 1pt @ 25/1
Alright Sunshine was a brilliant horse for Keith Dalgleish, winning nine times in total, and three of them were handicaps off marks of 97, 97 and 99. It’s doubtful whether he’ll be repeating that trick again but he’s down to 94 now and looks too readily ignored in the betting for me to leave him alone.
It’s with good reason as his stable debut at Yarmouth was poor, but he had a bad draw and in attempt to get a prominent sit, he was kept wide through the early stages. That backfired, he ended up losing his position and could never recover, eventually trailing home at the rear of the field.
That may be indicative of a horse who’s not on good terms with himself rather than just tactical problems but it’s only a month since he ran in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock and he wasn’t disgraced there despite it being slowly run over a trip that is a bare minimum for him these days.
He’s 6lbs lower in this, the extra yardage will allow him more time to get organised and, in contrast to his last two spins, he’s drawn on the fence. It should yield a nice sit in behind the pace and although he obviously needs to raise his game by quite a lot, he’s weighted to do something meaningful.
14:25 Haydock – The Turpinator – 1pt e/w @ 33/1
The Turpinator has got a chance thanks to the handicapper being lenient for once and is now rated 83. That’s a full 10lbs below his peak mark and 5lbs below his peak win, so surely it won’t take Grant Tuer too much longer to figure out the key to getting him performing somewhere near his best.
He was a no-show at Thirsk last week but, as can often be the case there, the pace dominated and nothing from behind got involved. He was unproven on such testing ground as well, and that trip on a speed track is sharp enough for him. Overall, there’s reason to forgive, forget and hope for better.
Before that, he didn’t run too badly on his first start for almost a couple of months when lining up at Newcastle. It was a slowly run affair, so that was against him, but he settled well, moved along sweetly enough and did about as well as could have been expected off that type of mediocre tempo.
It seems as if this will end up being truly run and if a good position is attainable, and those up top aren’t getting away or failing to stop, it’s far from impossible that he could have a say despite what the market is suggesting. Four places are up for grabs and he might fill one of them.
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