Horses to follow and tips for Ascot, Newmarket and Redcar

1.Is even-money shot Inspiral a banker or a blowout in Saturday’s G1 feature, the Virgin Bet Sun Chariot Stakes, at Newmarket?

Matt Brocklebank: It’s important to remember Inspiral has been beaten at 1/7 in the past, while she was turned over when 11/10 favourite on Champions Day 12 months ago as well, so I don’t think the word banker can come into it, personally. She does look short enough given that Andre Fabre is willing to bring dual G1 winner Mqse De Sevigne, although her jockey Alexis Pouchin has no experience of riding at Newmarket, whereas Inspiral’s jockey Frankie Dettori is on the brink of riding his 500th winner here. I’d be a bit worried about a lack of pace for both market leaders in truth, and if pushed for a selection could see RANDOM HARVEST going well from the front if getting away on terms, which wasn’t the case when disappointing at Goodwood last time. She’s an each-way price at 16s and 20/1.

Ben Linfoot: I do always think you’ve got a chance against INSPIRAL, as for all that she is talented she’s not straightforward and she’s been beaten at 1/7 and 11/10 in Group 1 company before. However, she looked good on the Rowley Mile at this time of year as a juvenile, winning the Fillies’ Mile well, and she looked good at Deauville last time, so there is hope she brings her A-game to the table on Saturday – and her A-game probably wins this. With the unseasonal faster ground probably against the French challenger, Mqse De Sevigne, I’m going to have to say banker.

Adam Houghton: On paper, the Sun Chariot looks a good opportunity for Inspiral to bring up the fifth Group 1 success of her career, back against her own sex after putting the boys in their place in the Prix Jacques le Marois for the second year in a row. But then we’ve been here before with Inspiral, who proved an expensive failure when turned over at 1/7 in last year’s Falmouth, a race which looked hers for the taking on all known form. That’s far from the only blip on her record and, as a rule, she’s just not a filly I’d want to be backing at short odds. It’s a race I’m unlikely to have a bet in, but I’d be leaning towards an each-way punt on MEDITATE if pushed having been encouraged by her latest run at Leopardstown.

2.And talking of bankers or blowouts, how do you rate the chances of odds-on favourite Dragon Leader in Redcar’s 2yo Trophy?

BL: You can get horses very obviously well-in in this race, thinking back to Limato and even Cold Case last year. DRAGON LEADER does look another for Clive Cox, rated 96 and getting plenty of weight from his main rivals on official ratings – Action Point and Kylian – who both carry penalties after Listed successes earlier in the season. Add to that his good form in big fields, his good recent form and his odds-on prices become understandable. He’s another banker for me, let’s double him up with Inspiral.

AH: I’d be tempted to look for the value elsewhere in a typical renewal of this race where the draw can have a significant bearing on the outcome, but this won’t be the usual cavalry charge with only 11 runners going to post. That makes it very hard to oppose DRAGON LEADER, who is massively favoured at the weights – 14lb clear of Flaccianello on Timeform’s weight-adjusted figures – and just looks a very solid colt following his good runs in similar events at York (winner) and Doncaster (runner-up).

MB: Well, this is your archetypal theoretical banker, isn’t it? DRAGON LEADER is officially rated just 5lb lower than the more exposed Kylian, and yet he receives 13lb in weight from his main market rival. Throw in the fact he’s open to loads more improvement after four lifetime starts, and the return to a sound surface looks likely to help, and he’s not a Saturday favourite I’ll be looking to take on.

3.How do you see the Group 3 Jim Barry Cumberland Lodge Stakes panning out at Ascot?

AH: The six-year-old POSTILEO is stepping out of handicaps for the first time in his career, but I don’t think he has as much to find with the form principals as the current odds might suggest, getting weight from the likes of Al Aasy and Israr. He looked better than ever in first-time cheekpieces when easily defying a BHA mark of 97 at Hamilton last time, powering clear in the closing stages to win by three and a half lengths. That was the performance of a potential pattern performer and it’s not out of the question that this lightly-raced sort could make the step up, especially if this develops into a proper stamina test at the trip.

MB: The market tells you the two Shadwell horses should dominate and I was certainly of the view that Al Aasy was handled pretty inefficiently last time out at Leopardstown, ultimately failing by just half a length to reel in the aggressively-ridden Adelaide River in the Paddy Power Stakes. He may sit a little handier this time, with Al Qareem and Claymore likely to ensure there’s a decent gallop on. Excess stamina may just come into play late on, then, and I’m intrigued to find out how much more POSTILEO has under the bonnet. He’s possibly not been the easiest to train but there’s always been a glimmer of quality about him, and he fairly hacked up from a mark of 97 in a Hamilton handicap when dropped back to this trip in August. The first-time cheekpieces worn there are sensibly retained and he goes well fresh so the subsequent 43-day layoff has presumably been by design. He also gets weight from the penalised pair at the top so might be able to outrun his odds (10/1 at the time of writing).

BL: It’s a shame none of the three-year-olds have turned up as this looks a Shadwell shootout now between AL AASY and Israr. Al Aasy has been consistent since a July 1 reappearance blew the cobwebs away and he looks the obvious one here getting a couple of pounds from Israr who is rated 2lb his superior. This could be run to suit Al Aasy, though, with Al Qareem and Claymore set to cut out the donkey work, Jim Crowley likely to hold onto his mount as long as possible in the straight. He just wouldn’t want to get him engaged in any sort of battle.

4.Is there an angle into the Group 3 John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes on the same card 35 minutes later?

BL: There doesn’t look to be a natural front-runner in here and I wouldn’t be surprised if they go a slightly below-par gallop for the grade. Such a scenario wouldn’t suit every horse in the race but I thought Ed Walker’s DARK TROOPER coped with a similar situation well at this track last time out when showing an impressive change of gear to come from the rear and win up the stands’ rail. He needs to step up again in this company, but he’s improving, gets a bit of help from the weight-for-age and penalty structure and he looks the danger to the form principals.

MB: Like the Sun Chariot at Newmarket, there looks to be precious little in the way of early pace signed up here and I could see GARRUS returning to form. He’s an out-and-out Group 3 animal when on song, having won three times at this level in the past including the Abernant over course and distance earlier this year. He ran a bit below his best when beaten five lengths in the Haydock Sprint Cup last time but he wasn’t disgraced and the earlier Deauville effort, when trying to concede 5lb to the progressive Mill Stream, wasn’t too far off his peak. Good ground and six furlongs are ideal and he might be able to dictate early and give them the slip around halfway.

AH: Most of these can be given some sort of chance and it’s only a tentative vote that goes the way of ANNAF. He seems to be thriving on a busy campaign, on the go since January and yet bettering anything he’d done previously this year when winning the Portland at Doncaster last time. Successful there from a BHA mark of 106, he should be capable of winning in Group company on that showing and I’d be hopeful of another good run for our money back at Ascot, the track where he was Group 1-placed in the King’s Stand at the Royal meeting.

5.Finally, give us one handicapper you’ve got your eye on this Saturday?

MB: Course specialist Fresh was a really obvious eyecatcher in Ireland last time and it looks significant he’s been saved for Ascot’s Howden Challenge Cup as he could have run in the Ayr Gold Cup. He’s already quite well found in the market, though, and I was surprised to see ATRIUM as big as 20/1 with a few firms on Thursday afternoon. He’s rather hit-or-miss but was right back to his best when dead-heating for first at Doncaster in July and I don’t think he’s had the race run to suit the last twice. He really needs a big field and a strong tempo, which he should get here, and I reckon he might need to win this and pick up the penalty if connections are hoping to sneak him into the Balmoral back here on Champions Day later in the month. Stall 13 looks reasonable as he’s right in amongst some of the key pace horses, and I like the booking of Harry Davies, who is 8-37 for Charlie Fellowes overall and 4-19 so far this year.

AH: The fillies’ handicap (14:40) at Newmarket features several unexposed sorts who promise to have more to offer, not least QUEEN EMMA, who caught the eye despite coming up short in her hat-trick bid at Doncaster last month. That was a deeper contest than anything she'd contested previously and, all things considered, it was a huge run from her to be beaten just a neck, especially as she still looked green when hanging left under pressure. It’s worth taking a positive view of that form – four of the six runners were last-time-out winners – and Queen Emma seems sure to go well again from just 3lb higher, very much the type to go on improving for the powerful William Haggas stable.

BL: I thought TOTNES might be of interest in the opening British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap over 10 furlongs at Newmarket. The Kingman filly has been acquitting herself well in some good handicaps, winning two in a row before going down fighting to Ralph Beckett’s tough gelding Balance Play last time out at Newbury. Up 1lb she still looks fairly treated and back in against her own sex she could well quickly regain the winning thread.

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