New York Mets at Houston Astros odds and predictions
The New York Mets (34-38) and the Houston Astros (39-34) play the middle contest of a 3-game interleague series at Minute Maid Park in Houston on Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 1-0; Astros won 2022 series 4-0
The Mets routed the Astros 11-1 in the series opener, cashing as slight underdogs (+105) while the Over (7.5) easily cashed.
New York snapped a 2-game losing streak, and the Mets had been 3-11 in the prior 14 games. The 11-run outburst Monday was the team’s highest-scoring game since dropping 17 runs on the Athletics in Oakland on April 14.
The Astros pitching staff has been pounded for 9 or more runs, and an average of 10.0 runs per game (RPG), in the last 3 outings. Houston has dropped a season-high 5 games, and it is the team’s longest skid since dropping 6 in a row from April 9-16, 2021.
Mets at Astros projected starters
RHP Justin Verlander vs. LHP Framber Valdez
Verlander (2-3, 4.40 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 45 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 6 K in a 4-3 home win in 10 innings vs. the New York Yankees last Wednesday
- 2023 road splits: 1-1, 5.85 ERA (20 IP, 13 ER) with a .288 opponent batting average (OBA) in 4 starts
Valdez (6-5, 2.27 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 91 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 6 K in a 5-4 home win vs. the Washington Nationals last Wednesday
- 2023 home splits: 2-4, 2.02 ERA (58 IP, 13 ER – 2 HR) with a .241 OBA in 9 starts
Mets at Astros odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 7:37 a.m. ET.
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Mets at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 3, Mets 2
The ASTROS (-140) are the play in this revenge game against former ace Verlander and the Mets (+115).
Houston is looking to break its skid, and it should be able to do so against a familiar face. Verlander has been struggling this season, and the Astros are due to snap out of it. Despite Monday’s loss, the Astros are still 9-4 in the past 13 games against National League East opponents, while going 13-5 in the past 18 against losing teams.
The Mets +1.5 (-185) are just a little too expensive for my liking, if you require a little bit of insurance. New York looked awfully good in Monday’s series opener, but the truth is neither of these teams can be trusted on the run line at this point.
PASS.
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The UNDER 7.5 (-120) is the play in this matchup between former teammates.
While the Mets took care of the Over themselves, the Under is a good idea in this solid pitching matchup. The Under is 4-1-1 in the past 6 in Game 2 of a series for the Mets, too, while going 6-0 in the past 6 games following a win.
The Under has cashed in 4 of the past 5 games against teams with a losing record, while going 11-3 in the past 14 outings after allowing 5 or more runs in the previous contest.
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