Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, Preview, and Odds
The Western Conference continues in their league play as we head toward the All-Star Break with a matchup between the Houston Rockets (23-25, 11th in the West) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (34-15, 2nd in the West). Houston just won big at home over the Raptors 135-106m easily covering the spread as 4.5-point home favorites. The T-Wolves just dropped a home game to the Magic 108-106, losing outright as 6.5-point favorites. This is the second of three matchups between these teams this season, with Minnesota winning their first game by 27 on the road. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00 EST from the Target Center in Minneapolis.
Rockets Fighting for Playoffs
The Houston Rockets have a young core of stars, but they are no longer searching for draft picks, they would rather make the Play-in Tournament and make noise in the postseason. Houston is currently in 11th in the West, and needs to start winning games to improve their spot in the postseason chase. In their last game, the Rockets were led by rookie Cam Whitmore with 25 points in the win over the Raptors.
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— Houston Rockets (@HoustonRockets) February 3, 2024
Alperen Sengun was an All-Star snub as a 6'11 center averaging 21.7 PPG, 9.3 RPG and 5.1 APG. He is coming off a 24-point, 13-rebound game in their most recent win over the Raptors. Sengun is a crafty center who can score inside or set up his teammates for easy looks. Jalen Green is another young scorer on the wing, he is averaging 18.4 PPG and grabs 4.8 RPG, he recently had a 34 and 12 game in a win over the Lakers. Fred Van Vleet is the top shooter on the team, he makes 2.9 three-pointers per game on 37.5% shooting, while adding another 16.6 PPG. Dillon Brooks and Jabari Smith Jr. are two defenders in the starting lineup who each score around 13 points per game.
Cam Whitmore has stepped up his game lately, he is now averaging 11.8 PPG off the bench. Tari Eason will miss this game with an injury, leaving Amen Thompson as the next-highest scorer off the bench. The Rockets rank 21st in the league in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency according to dunksandthrees.com. Houston ranks 16th in the league in tempo.
Injury Report:
Out: Tari Eason, Steven Adams
Battle for the Top Spot
The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a battle for the top spot in the West with the Nuggets and the Thunder. They currently sit at second, but given their youth they want to have home-court advantage as much as possible in the playoffs. They won two of their last three games, but took a loss to Orlando in their last matchup in a game the team feels they should have won. Minnesota was led by Rudy Gobert with 22 points and 16 rebounds in the loss.
— Minnesota Timberwolves (@Timberwolves) February 3, 2024
Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns were both named to the All-Star team recently. Edwards leads Minnesota in scoring with 25.5 PPG and is the top shooter on the team with 2.5 made threes per game on 38.6% shooting from deep. Edwards had 22 points in the loss to Orlando. Towns have settled into the second-scorer role, he is averaging 22.7 PPG and adding 8.6 RPG on the inside. Rudy Gobert did not make the All-Star team, but is averaging 13.6 PPG and is 2nd in the NBA in rebounding with 12.5 RPG. Jaden McDaniels is a defensive stopper on the wing, and Mike Conley is a veteran point guard in the starting lineup.
Naz Reid is their top scorer off the bench, the big man is averaging 12.3 PPG and will battle for the Sixth Man of the Year Award. Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kyle Anderson grab the rest of the minutes off the bench. The Timberwolves have the top-ranked defense in the league in terms of efficiency, and rank 18th in offensive efficiency. They play slow on offense, they rank 26th in tempo.
Injury Report:
Questionable: Rudy Gobert
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
Rating:
There are two very important factors leading to a Rockets cover in this one. First, Gobert may not play and will be banged up even if he does go. Secondly, the total is set very low. Gobert missing this game is more important than usual as Houston runs their offense through their center in Sengun. He is an underrated young star in this league, and without Gobert inside he will be able to pick apart the interior of Minnesota's defense. The second sign pushing me toward the Rockets is this surprisingly low total, it is only 218 points. West Coast teams typically land in the 230 range in their matchups, this is the lowest total Houston has seen since a January 10th matchup with Detroit. If there are not expected to be a lot of points scored, then taking the team with the 7.5 points at full strength is the play. Jalen Green and Fred Van Vleet will be ready to tee off on the perimeter, and Minnesota has not been able to hold on to that number one spot in the West.
Take the Rockets to cover.
Prediction: Rockets +7.5
Full-Game Total Pick
Insiders Status:
Rating:
The total is set too low, this was addressed in the pick for the Rockets above, but it rings even more true here. Houston plays with a four-guard lineup, Jabari Smith Jr. has perimeter skills and their center Sengun is a smart ballhandler who averages over 5.0 APG. Houston has gone over the total in four of their last six games, and all six of those game had a total listed higher than 218. Minnesota has the top-ranked defense in the league but may be without Gobert. This changes everything for Minnesota, as the T-Wolves rely on Gobert to take shots away at the rim as part of their defensive philosophy. Minnesota still has a healthy Edwards and Towns for this matchup, so scoring will not be a problem. This number is too low.
Take the over.
Prediction: Over 218
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