Memphis Grizzlies vs. Houston Rockets Prediction, Preview, and Odds
This Wednesday night matchup features the Memphis Grizzlies (3-10 record, 5-8 ATS, 6-7 O/U) traveling to take on the Houston Rockets (6-6 record, 8-3-1 ATS, 4-8 O/U) at home. The Grizzlies are coming off a 102-100 loss at home against the Celtics, while the Rockets are coming off a 121-116 loss on the road against the Warriors. Tip-off for this game is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. EST, live from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.
Grizzlies Drop Tough Game At Home
Memphis has a 3-10 record overall and is coming off a brutal 102-100 loss at home against the Celtics after a hectic finish to the game. Desmond Bane led the team in scoring and assists with 30 points and eight assists while going 7/14 from three and 11/27 from the field. Santi Aldama also had a good night, recording a double-double with 28 points and 12 rebounds. From a team aspect, they were slightly out-rebounded by the Celtics while having nearly half as many turnovers. Turnovers clearly kept the Grizzlies in the game, but they were unable to capitalize in the game's closing minutes. Overall, it was a tough loss for the Grizzlies, as they had one of the league's top teams on the ropes late in the game but could not deliver the knockout punch.
The Grizzlies enter their upcoming game on the road against the Rockets as five-point underdogs, given their struggles on the season thus far. In their past matchups, the Grizzlies have dominated, winning nine of their past 10 matchups. However, times have changed, and the Rockets are slowly improving while Memphis seems to be heading in the wrong direction. For them to cover their spread and win this game, a couple of things have to happen. The Grizzlies have to improve on their 42.9% field goal percentage, which ranks 29th in the league, especially against the Rockets, who excel in limiting that category on defense. Similarly, the Grizzlies need to do a better job of closing out on perimeter shooters as they allow opponents to shoot 41.5% from three, ranking last in the league. If they can focus on these aspects of the game and clean up some other problems on defense, they could have a chance of covering and possibly winning this game.
Rockets Drop Third Straight Game
Houston got off to a hot start but has dropped three straight games, resulting in them falling to a 6-6 overall record. Their most recent 121-116 loss came on the road against the Warriors, in which a lopsided second quarter ultimately decided the game. Alperen Sengun led the team in scoring and posted a double double with 30 points and 13 rebounds, while Fred VanVleet also had a double double with 10 points and 14 assists. As a team, they simply couldn't keep pace with the Warriors' elite three-point shooting, as they shot 48.8% from three as a team while the Rockets shot just 31.7% from three themselves. Overall, it was a tough loss for the Rockets, as they played well but couldn't put a stop to Steph Curry and the Warriors.
The Rockets enter their upcoming game at home against the Grizzlies as five-point favorites, despite a recent string of losses. Houston has won the majority of their past 10 games, and more importantly, they have covered in eight of their past 10 games as well. For them to cover their spread once again and snap their losing streak, some things need to change on both ends. On offense, they have to get back to using the dribble drive along with pick and roll to get open looks in the paint and along the perimeter. They have struggled a bit in terms of field goal percentage as of late, but their three-point shooting has held true. On defense, they have been playing very well. They have allowed opponents to shoot well from three in their past couple of games, which could just be regression towards the average, but it has definitely cost them some wins. If they can get back to their strengths on defense and find a balance on offense, they should have a very good chance at covering their spread and winning this game.
Best Bets
Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:
Taking the Rockets to cover their spread this game for several reasons. Despite their recent string of losses, they have played some tough opponents and still managed to cover their spread. Expect the Rockets' defense to be prominent against a struggling Memphis team, as Houston ranks fifth in terms of opposing field goal percentage and third in terms of opposing three-point percentage. Memphis already has problems with these categories themselves, ranking second to last in field goal percentage and 24th in three-point percentage. There should be plenty of empty possessions from the Grizzlies, as the Rockets use that to create the score differential needed to cover their spread, specifically by using three-point shooting. The Rockets rank 14th in three-point shooting percentage, hitting 36.2% of their threes, while the Grizzlies rank dead last in opposing three-point percentage, allowing opponents to shoot 41.5% from three. Look for a barrage of threes from the Rockets as they score consistently against a Memphis defense that struggles to close out on perimeter shooters. The Rockets have covered or pushed in nine of their past 10 games, making me all the more confident in taking them to cover their spread this game.
Houston Rockets: -5-110
Prediction: Houston Rockets -5 -110
Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:
Taking the over in this game for a couple of reasons. This line opened up at 212.5 and has since moved up to 213.5, indicating sharp action on the over. Over the past two years, these teams typically have totals in the 230s when they face off and have gone over in the majority of those games. While I do expect Memphis to struggle a bit offensively, I do not see this game going under the given total. The Grizzlies average 108.7 points per game and allow opponents to score an average of 114.2 points per game, while the Rockets average 109.9 points per game and allow opponents to average 107 points per game. This puts our implied total at 219.9, about six points higher than the given total. Both teams' strengths lie in their three-point shooting on offense, and I expect this to be apparent throughout the game as the work to get open looks along the perimeter. The Grizzlies are due for some positive regression in that department, while the Rockets have shot the three-ball well all season. With that being said, I am confident in taking the over for this game.
Over 213.5
Prediction: Over 213.5
I grew up a sports fanatic, playing and studying baseball, basketball, and football throughout highschool, and partially in college. That love for sports eventually transitioned to sports wagering, where I now spend my free time enjoying the fast paced environment that is sports wagering. I am currently enrolled in college, where I major in Mathematics and minor in Computer Science. Needless to say my knowledge of statistics and data analysis applies perfectly when sports wagering, and I value the data and statistics over "gut" or "feel" when making my predictions. With a complex understanding of odds and probability, I am able to detect value in game markets, and alert you to good value hidden within the bet. My knowledge and passion are shared throughout my breakdowns, in which we constantly uncover value, and more importantly, winners.
