Rockets vs. Timberwolves NBA expert prediction and odds for Sunday, Feb. 4 (Fade Hous

The Minnesota Timberwolves are tied for the top spot in the Western Conference with the Oklahoma City Thunder, but both teams play on Sunday. 

That means Minnesota needs a win to keep the pace, assuming the Thunder can beat the Toronto Raptors as 8.5-point favorites. 

Minnesota – on the other hand – comes into this game as a seven-point favorite against a Houston team that is just 5-16 straight up on the road this season. 

The Rockets are still on the outside looking in of the play-in tournament picture (sitting in the No. 11 spot), and they are two games below .500 on the season. Can they pull off an upset? 

Or, will Minnesota’s dominance at home continue on Sunday?

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Let’s examine the odds and my best bet for this matchup:  

Rockets injury report

Timberwolves injury report

Houston Rockets:

Alperen Sengun: This could be a tough matchup for Sengun, as Rudy Gobert is playing at a Defensive Player of the Year level this season. Sengun is averaging 21.7 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game this season while shooting 54.4 percent from the field. He had 19 points in his last game against Minnesota but grabbed just five boards.  

Minnesota Timberwolves:

Anthony Edwards: An All-Star this season, Ant has had some up-and-down games as of late, but he’s still averaging 25.5 points, 5.1 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game. The Wolves star had 24 points in a 27-point win over Houston in the last meeting between these teams. 

As good as Houston has been at home this season, the team is dreadful on the road, especially as an underdog. 

Houston is just 6-11-1 ATS as a road underdog, and this team doesn’t match up well with the size of the Timberwolves, as evidenced by the team’s 27-point loss at home to Minnesota earlier this season. 

Bettors may want to make sure that Gobert (questionable) is going to suit up in this game, but Minnesota certainly has an edge, even if it is only 9-9-2 ATS as a home favorite. 

The Wolves are still winning those games by an average margin of 9.5 points per game. 

These teams are eerily similar this season, ranking No. 1 (Minnesota) and No. 7 (Houston) in defensive rating and No. 19 (Minnesota) and No. 20 (Houston) in offensive rating. 

However, on the road, the Rockets are just 16th in defensive rating, a massive drop off from when they’re at home. I think that could be the difference in this matchup. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.