How Coaching, Roster Changes Impact College Football Betting

Wisconsin fired Paul Chryst over the weekend. Five Power 5 college football programs have fired coaches this fall. Last season, seven programs made coaching changes before Nov. 1. From 2016-20, only six Power Five coaches were fired before November 1, according to research from Sporting News. Only 12 coaches across the FBS were sacked before the end of the season in the previous five seasons.

After an early season firing, many narratives emerge.

Georgia Tech won outright against Pittsburgh on Saturday. The Yellow Jackets were listed as underdogs at Pittsburgh. Last season, teams that fired their coaches before November 1 went 23-22-1 against the spread and 13-33 overall. This season only three teams have played games since the change: Arizona State, Georgia Tech, and Nebraska.

The seven teams that fired coaches before Nov. 1 last season are 24-11 against the spread and 25-10 overall. Six of them have winning ATS records. Texas Tech is the only team with a losing record against spreads.

The sample size is too small to jump to conclusions. There are many other factors to consider when looking at why seven teams are thriving against the spread.

There are seven teams that are covering the spread early in the season. The teams are all influenced by the transfer portal. UConn has 28 players who started their college careers elsewhere. Georgia Southern, USC and Washington State are 12-2 against the Spread. They are led by former Buffalo quarterback Kyle Vantrease. He is leading the Sun Belt with 314.8 passing yards per game. Caleb Williams is a Heisman contender at USC. Lincoln Riley coached him at Oklahoma. His new head coach is Caleb. Williams will not transfer to USC without Lincoln.

Last year's seven early firings show it's possible to make changes in the offseason. Oddsmakers are trying to keep up with the changes and the uncertainty created by it.