How to bet Pick 6 with $54,483 carryover at Fair Grounds

Just as the Mardi Gras festivities wind their way to Lundi Gras and Fat Tuesday in New Orleans, so too does the live racing at Fair Grounds, where there are nine races for your President's Day pleasure plus a $54,483 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

The sequence begins with race 4 and features a low 15 percent takeout on any new money. The biggest challenge for bettors will be what to do with No. 2 Nosilverspoonshere for race 5 in leg 2. The Tom Amoss trainee sports a morning line of 2-5 and clearly is the horse to beat. But is she the horse to bet? The Horse Racing Nation Horses to Single Report says yes.

And I agree.

Nosilverspoonshere makes this a $1 Pick 5. Of course can she lose. Any horse can, but with the carryover and low takeout, I'd rather give myself maximum coverage on the other five races than press anything that goes against this favorite. She won her 4-year-old debut by 17 lengths at 1-10, and I expect similar against these.

So where is the opportunity to separate from the pack? Perhaps in race 8, leg 4, where No. 5 Money Run is 4-1 on the morning line. I expect this one to be favored but to still offer value at longer than 5-2. I also don't see this as a horse many will be singling, so hopefully there is a chance to pick up some equity on this one.

The opening leg is tricky. It is at that one-mile trip on the main track with the short stretch to the first finish line. No. 3 For Real Alice tried tougher last out after two consecutive wins but now returns to the $5,000 claiming level and reunites with jockey Colby Hernandez. This is a big use anywhere near the morning line.

The grid for all nine races is below:

A few other thoughts on the full card:

I'm very curious on how race 2 will get bet. No. 6 Astern Banker is 3-5 on morning line, dropping in class and trying dirt after taking no money and doing even less running on debut. That is a total toss for me at that price.

How I approach the lone turf race, race 6 or leg 3 of the Pick 6, depends on whether No. 10 Top Ten Duchess draws in. That's a single on the main ticket if she goes. Otherwise, I definitely will want more coverage on all tickets.

The debut runner in the finale, leg 6 of the Pick 6, looks really interesting, even getting 5 stars from Horse Racing Nation's First-Timer Power Ratings Report. But as a 3-year-old in February going against older horses, I have to pass. In fact she's a May foal, so she's not even 34 months old.