The Fountain of Youth Highlights a Day of Kentucky Derby Prep Races
With only nine weeks to go until the Kentucky Derby, CNBC and Peacock have live racing coverage from sunny Hallandale Beach, Florida from 5-6:30pm on Saturday.
The featured race is the Fountain of Youth, the 2 of Gulfstream’s three Kentucky Derby preps this year. But our coverage is supported by two Grade 3 turf races, both of which drew very solid fields.
I am going to link these three races by playing a Pick-3, meaning I have to pick the winner of three consecutive races. I am also going to play some bets that are specific to each race. Let’s get started:
CANADIAN TURF STAKES
GULFSTREAM, SATURDAY RACE 12
POST TIME: 4:58 PM
At first glance, this seems like an evenly matched race, as each of the main contenders have very similar resumes and have earned comparable speed figures. But if you dig deeper, I think there’s one horse that is a clear standout in here – the morning-line favorite, #3 Emmanuel.
Emmanuel’s win in the Poker Stakes back in June really impressed me. That race is technically a Grade 3, but it drew a very strong field for the level. The horses that finished 2 and 3rd that day, Filo Di Arianna and Chez Pierre, are both far better than anything he faces here. I know he hasn’t raced since August, but I’m not letting that scare me as this horse has run well off similar layoffs before. Plus, it doesn’t hurt him to have the best jockey in the country, Irad Ortiz, aboard. I think he’s a cut above this field and I’m using him as a single in the Pick-3, late pick-5, and keying him on top in my single-race wagers. (Plus, one of my good friends is named Emmanuel so how could I not make him my top pick?)
For the single-race wagers, I’m using #4 Turf King and #5 Siege of Boston underneath; the former should take a big step forward in his first start as a 4-year-old, and the latter ran well last time out despite a disadvantageous early pace scenario.
THE PLAY:
EXACTA: 3 / 4,5
TRIFECTA: 3 / 4,5
HORSES USED IN THE PICK-3: 3
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HONEY FOX STAKES
GULFSTREAM, SATURDAY RACE 13
POST TIME: 5:23PM
I’m less confident in this race’s morning line favorite, #6 Chili Flag. Her 6 place finish in the G2 Pegasus FM Turf last time out was decent, but it’s not like she had major traffic trouble that kept her from winning. Plus, she’s only won 2 of her 7 starts since being imported to the U.S., and most of those 7 starts were against weaker competition than what she faces here. I don’t see her taking another step forward here, and while she might not need to in order to win this race, I don’t want to bet her at short odds.
I’m far more interested in a filly that has a ton of room for improvement - #4 Spansive. Her career kicked off with a bang, as she won each of her first 2 starts. But she’s lost her last 2 since, and that might put some bettors off. But if you look closer, she had excuses in each of those losses – she was too close to a hot pace 2 back, and then she was far behind a slow pace last time out. There’s some hidden upside here and I think this is the day she gets back to the winner’s circle.
Others to consider include #7 For the Flag, who can take advantage of a speed-favoring Gulfstream turf course, and #8 Mohawk Trail, who was facing some sneaky-good competition as a 3-year-old last year, and any step forward in her 4-year-old debut makes her a major contender at a big price.
THE PLAY:
#4 Spansive, at 6-1 or higher
#8 Mohawk Trail, at 12-1 or higher
EXACTA & TRIFECTA BOX: 4, 7, 8
HORSES USED IN THE PICK-3: 4, 7, 8
FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH STAKES
GULFSTREAM, SATURDAY RACE 14
POST TIME: 6:10PM
The scratches of #3 Victory Avenue and #8 Locked have taken much of the wagering value out of this race.
In the pick-3, I’m going to play #5 Dornoch as well as #1 Speak Easy and play Dornoch on top in all of my single race wagers.
I also want to give one more chance to #9 Dancing Groom, who finished a mediocre 5in the Holy Bull last month after I picked him to finish in the money. I’m hoping he can pass most of the field in the stretch to finish 2 or 3.
THE PLAY:
EXACTA: 5 / 1,9
TRIFECTA: 5 / 1,9 / 1,9
HORSES USED IN THE PICK-3: 1,5
FULL PICK-3 TICKET: 3 / 4,7,8 / 1,5
