How to bet the Houston Astros-Kansas City Royals ALDS Game 5

A game's win-expectancy graph for each team can look an awful lot like an EKG reading if the game is close, thanks to the series of spikes and dips that occur, especially in a tie game, as each side is retired per half inning. That analogy is certainly apt for the Kansas City Royals, because for the second year in a row, they had a near-death experience in the playoffs.

The Royals yet again found themselves down four runs with six outs left in an elimination game. Monday's escape versus the Astros was actually considerably less dramatic than last year's comeback against the Oakland A's; six batters into the eighth inning, Kansas City had erased the deficit whereas last year's comeback took two innings to complete and another three extra innings to take the lead (which required overcoming another down-to-their-last-at-bat deficit). Of course, last year's comeback clinched a series, while all Monday's comeback accomplished was a return to Kansas City for Game 5.

Following the same approach as the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays in their Game 5 matchup earlier Wednesday, Kansas City will turn to its Game 2 starter, Johnny Cueto. Bucking this trend, Houston will hand the ball to Game 1 winner Collin McHugh.

Tonight we'll find out whether the Royals have enough magic left to pull out another win or the Astros can overcome the "dead man walking" syndrome last seen when the Rangers dropped Game 7 of the 2011 World Series following their devastating defeat in Game 6.

Either Joe Peta or Andrew Lange is going to possess a dead ticket after this game as their preview of this series saw them on different sides. Peta tabbed the Royals (-140) to take the series while Lange saw the Astros (+120) advancing.

Here are the best bets for Wednesday night's game:

Houston Astros (+130) vs. Kansas City Royals (-140)

Over/under: 7.5 (-120)

Joe Peta: Even in winning Game 2, McHugh didn't flash the skills needed to beat the Royals. Of the 23 batters he faced, he struck out one, walked one and hit a batter and gave up two home runs, while Royals hitters put 18 balls into play. All but two of those balls turned into outs, and while the Astros had an above-average defense all year, even a defense led by Ozzie Smith can't consistently turn 89 percent of batted balls into outs. If I had any confidence that a reasonable facsimile of the Cueto who pitched for the Reds would resurface tonight, I'd gladly double up on the -140 ticket I'm already holding for the series.

Instead, I'll let discretion override temptation and pass on the game. If I didn't have a position on the game already, I'd back the Royals tonight, but the conviction isn't there to effectively make it a two-unit play. However, I still believe we have a Royals-Cubs World Series in our future.

ESPN Chalk pick: pass

Andrew Lange: Another Game 5 that I'll be sitting out with a wager on Houston for the series at +120. That's pretty much in line with Game 5's price and as I stated in my original series preview, I'm not at all a fan of Cueto. He didn't look sharp in Game 2 (four earned runs in six innings pitched) and I would imagine if he struggles, the Royals will be quick to go to their bullpen. Kelvin Herrera, Ryan Madson and Wade Davis all threw in the Game 4 win, but with a day off, all three will be available. After tossing three shutout innings in its Game 1 win, Houston's bullpen has been smacked around and will be an underdog to K.C.'s arms in the late innings. I would prefer McHugh over Cueto in a five-inning scenario, but feel the game price is correct.