How Valuable Is a Pick Swap in the NBA?

Trading for an NBA superstar is more expensive than ever. General managers are looking for more flexibility in their picks. The average pick swap in the NBA returns second-round value. Some team executives think that pick swaps are overvalued in a trade for a star. The Celtics last decade provided a proof of concept for the ideal outcome of a swap. They had the worst record in NBA and won the lottery. Celtics had a best record and were slated for no. 36 overall pick. This year, teams have offered more first-rounder swaps than in any previous decade. Pro Sports Transactions archives recorded every first round swap and found that it's only about as valuable as the no 36 pick in general.

The Kings-76ers swap in 2017 saw Philadelphia gain a late first-round pick. The difference in expected value between picks 3 and 5 is about equivalent to the no. 30 pick, so it's not worth getting excited about. Rebuilding teams are seeking pick swaps more often in recent seasons. This is partly out of necessity, as the cost for stars skyrockets on the trade market. Team executives suggest the league is overvaluing swaps because they offer the tantalizing glimmer of upside.