Howard vs. Kansas Predictions, Odds & Picks: Will Jayhawks’ March Madness Title Defense Start With Rout?

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14 March 2023

Howard vs. Kansas Predictions, Odds & Picks: Will Jayhawks’ March Madness Title Defense Start With Rout?

The Kansas Jayhawks look to become the first repeat college basketball national champions since the Florida Gators did it in 2006 and 2007. Their title defense starts with a matchup against the No. 16 seed Howard Bison. Read on for our Howard vs. Kansas college basketball picks based on the top NCAAB odds.

Howard (22-12, 11-3) rolled into the MEAC tournament title game with three consecutive wins by 19-plus points, then edged Norfolk State 65-64 in the championship game to earn its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1992.

Kansas (27-7, 13-5) has not lost a game to anyone other than Texas since Feb. 5 but dropped two to the Longhorns in that span, including the Big 12 Tournament championship. The Jayhawks played the entire conference tournament without head coach Bill Self. He was hospitalized with an illness but is expected to be back on the sidelines for the NCAA Tournament.

Here is our best Howard vs. Kansas college basketball pick (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Howard vs. Kansas odds

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Kansas was held to 60 or fewer points for the fifth time this season in the Big 12 Championship game. And while Howard’s 212th-ranked defense, per KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, is not as imposing as Texas’, the Bison come in with much momentum from a dominant MEAC tournament run where its defense played its best basketball of the season.

Howard held its three conference tournament opponents to an average of 58 points, despite playing a style of defense that spends the sixth-fewest time on defense per possession in the country. The Bison’s success was largely due to clamping down on the perimeter (13-of-63, 20.6% 3-point shooting allowed) in the conference tournament while forcing 15-plus turnovers in two of the three games. If Howard can pressure Kansas’ guards and force turnovers, it will offset the fact that the Bison average 16.3 turnovers per game, the third-most in Division I.

Kansas could not find an offensive threat other than forward Jalen Wilson (his 20.1 points per game led the Big 12) with guard Kevin McCullar injured against Texas. If McCullar is held out because of back spasms once again, it limits the Jayhawks’ offensive ceiling considerably.

Many will dismiss Howard because of its multiple no-shows in the non-conference. The Bison lost to Kentucky by 32 and Yale by 46 before being more competitive against VCU, losing by 10. However, comparing those games to this one against Kansas is not apples to apples considering those were true road games, and in the Yale loss specifically, the Bison were without three of their top four leading scorers. Howard won 14 of its last 16 games when it was returning to full strength, and we expect the Bison to cover for the sixth time in their seventh neutral site game this year.

Howard vs. Kansas best odds

FanDuel (-110)

At one point yesterday, all sportsbooks were in unison with the 21.5-point spread. However, only FanDuel remained at this number, with all others shading towards the underdogs. The line would likely move more if Self were unavailable to coach this game unexpectedly, but his and McCullar’s unknown statuses are likely big reasons why this line has gone towards the underdogs at most places.

Howard vs. Kansas odds analysis

Kansas has held firm as consensus 21.5-point favorites only at FanDuel and BetRivers. The point spread has moved slightly in the direction of the underdogs at most sportsbooks despite 63% of all wagers backing the Jayhawks.

The Over/Under has held firm at the opening number of 145.5 at several sportsbooks, but has climbed to 146 at some others, and reached a high of 146.5 at FanDuel. There is near dead-even two-way action on the total, as 53% of wagers have backed the Over.