Kansas vs. Baylor prediction: College basketball odds, best bets

In a battle of top-ranked teams, No. 15 Baylor hopes to earn a split in the regular-season series when it hosts No. 7 Kansas on Saturday afternoon. 

The Jayhawks won the first meeting, 64-61, but failed to cover the spread as 5.5-point favorites. 

The biggest factor in this matchup is the likely absence of KU’s best player, Kevin McCullar Jr.

The senior guard, who leads the Big 12 at 19.0 points per game, has been dealing with a lingering knee bone bruise that has forced him to miss four games already and threatens the rest of his season. 

The Jayhawks just aren’t the same team without McCullar, particularly when they’re on the road.

In this preview, I’ll share why bettors should back the Bears as a favorite in this revenge spot, with the venue switching to Foster Pavilion in Waco.

If Jayhawks coach Bill Self isn’t hitting the panic button, he’s certainly sounding the alarms. Kansas uncharacteristically blew a 12-point second-half lead against BYU to snap a 19-game home winning streak.

In his postgame news conference, Self said his veterans didn’t handle the adversity particularly well.

“I actually saw some things with guys; frustration that really wasn’t as mature as what we should have, considering the age of some of our guys,” Self said. “There wasn’t as much thinking (about the) next play as there was thinking (about the) last play, and that’s not a good sign. If you’re in the stands watching, you can see body language and things like that.”

If Kansas is already starting to unravel in front of its home crowd, what happens when it finds itself in a hostile environment on the road?

I’ve always been somewhat critical of Self in that his teams generally don’t schedule non-conference road games. Thus, I don’t think his teams are as well-prepared as they could be when conference play starts.

To make matters worse, they will likely have to find a way to cope without McCullar, who is one of three double-digit scorers on the Jayhawks compared to six for the Bears.

With Kansas already a very top-heavy team, the potential loss of McCullar could be disastrous against the Bears on the road.

The Bears might have stolen a win on the road against Kansas had they taken better care of the ball. Baylor had 13 more turnovers than Kansas (21 total), leading to 17 points for the Jayhawks.

Those turnovers were ultimately the difference in Kansas escaping with a three-point win. 

While there’s no question Allen Fieldhouse is a difficult place to play for any visiting team, the Bears will hope their new home at Foster Pavilion will be just as difficult for the opposition.

Baylor’s home/away splits are pretty dramatic, considering TeamRankings slots it ninth in offensive efficiency with 115.6 points per 100 possessions.

The Bears average 108.5 points per possession on the road, but that number improves to 122.1 when at home.

Defensively, we have a similar discrepancy, as Baylor improves from a 107.2 efficiency rating to 95.2.

If we compare the net point differential between Baylor and Kansas, the Bears would have a +6.4 edge.

Baylor will undoubtedly have an advantage on the perimeter as Kansas ranks 304th with 5.9 3-pointers per game.

The Jayhawks also struggle to defend the perimeter, ranking 291st with an average of 8.3 3-point field goals allowed. 

In comparison, Baylor ranks 35th with nine 3-pointers per game and 9.9 when at home. 

The Jayhawks lost to BYU on Tuesday because they couldn’t stop the Cougars on the perimeter.

Since BYU ranks second in the country with 11.4 3-pointers per game, the Bears can follow a similar blueprint to hand Kansas another loss.

(1 p.m. ET, ESPN)

My keys to this game boil down to Baylor’s 3-point shooting and its ability to win the turnover battle.

Kansas will want to muck things up as much as possible because it knows it’ll need to limit Baylor’s possessions to have a chance to keep the game close. 

According to our Actions Labs database, Baylor is 11-5 (68.8%) against the spread in a revenge spot off a loss of three or fewer points. 

With McCullar’s status in serious doubt, I think the Bears will pose too much of a threat for Kansas offensively, and I like their chances to cover the spread and knot this series at one game apiece.

Pick: Baylor -4.5 (-106, FanDuel)

Michael Arinze is a sports handicapper for Action Network. Follow him on X @Vegas_Analytics.