Houston vs. Kansas Prediction, Preview, and Odds
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No. 8 Kansas (17-4 SU, 9-12 ATS, 5-3 B12) takes on No. 4 Houston (19-2 SU, 11-9-1 ATS, 6-2 B12) on Saturday at 4pmET from Lawrence in a huge Big 12 battle.
This will be the first meeting between these teams as members of the Big 12.
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Big road test for the Cougars
Kelvin Sampson's Cougars have just two losses this season and both came in Big 12 play. That shows how difficult this conference can be, but the Cougars appear to be in great shape when it comes to earning a top seed in the NCAA Tournament in March. According to KenPom, they are first overall and rank first in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are also ranked first in NCAA Basketball Net Rankings thanks to a 3-2 road record and a 7-2 Quad 1 Record.
Houston has won five straight games after losing two straight road games to TCU and Iowa State by a combined five points. In their last game on Jan. 29, they edged Texas 76-72 in overtime as a 4.5-point road favorite. Jamal Snead scored 25 points and eight rebounds to lead the way for the Cougars. Houston shot just 41% from the field and 33% (8-of-24) from beyond the arc. They outrebounded the Longhorns by 11 and held them to 30% shooting from long range.
Nobody plays better defense than the Cougars. Shead (6-1, 195) and L.J. Cryer (6-1, 190) are short, but stocky guards who are outstanding defenders. Cryer leads the Cougars with 15.1 points and shoots 40% from the field and 37.8% from long range. Shead adds 12.3 points and 2.2 steals while shooting 45.5% (35.6% 3PT) from the field.
Jayhawks should get McCullar back
Kansas didn't need star forward Kevin McCullar Jr. in an 83-54 home win over Oklahoma State on Tuesday. McCullar Jr. sat out the game with a bruised knee and the Jayhawks didn't miss their leading scorer. Center Hunter Dickinson (16pts, 11 rebs) and K.J. Adams Jr. (16pts, 6 ast) did enough to help the Jayhawks get the job done. McCullard Jr. (6-7, 212) is a graduate senior guard who began his career at Texas Tech. He averages 19.8 points and 6.4 rebounds with 4.7 assists.
“Like I’ve said all along, I’m — it’s a bone bruise,” head coach Bill Self said to Yahoo.com about McCullar when speaking with reporters on Thursday. “So, I’m anticipating him being able to go. But I don’t know to the extent or how much it’ll bother him or anything like that. But we’ll know more after (Thursday).”
The Jayhawks (15th KenPom, 13th NCAA Net Rankings) haven't looked like a No. 1 or even a No. 2 seed. This is a squad that lost at UCF on Jan. 10 and at West Virginia on Jan. 20. Their road struggles (2-3) are not a great barometer for the postseason. But one thing they do have is a 7-1 center in Hunter Dickinson, who averages 18.7 points and 11.2 rebounds with 1.2 blocks, while shooting 59.2% from the field and 37.8% from long range.
They also have a pretty good defense, that holds teams to 39.6% shooting from the field (17th) and 32.1% from long range (113th). Offensively, they average 79.2 points per game, while shooting 50.4% from the field (4th) and 36.2% from long range (74th).
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Houston's defense is special. I just don't see Kansas' guards being able to keep up with Cryer and Shead. That may not work in the NCAA Tournament but in one road game, and I know Kansas is tough to play, the Cougars are going to dictate a slow pace and dominate Kansas on the boards. That will allow Houston to run their halfcourt stuff, while eliminating most fast breaks. Houston ranks 18th in rebound margin at +8. Kansas is 61st in rebound margin at +4.9, but they rely too much on Dickinson. Houston doesn't have great height, but they have a bunch of wide-bodied guys that will push the former Michigan center out of the paint.
Prediction: Houston -1.5
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Houston ranks 352nd in Adjusted Tempo according to KenPom, so they want to slow the tempo down and they will because they can rebound and have guards that take care of the basketball. Kansas will pressure the ball, but their tempo (111th) isn't as fast as most people think. That's because they have Dickinson and they want to get the ball to their 7-1 center down low. Houston has gone under in four of their last six games, but one of those overs was the Texas game, which went overtime.
Prediction: Under
Ben has been a sports writer for over 35 years, dabbling in college and pro basketball, college and pro football, baseball, college lacrosse, minor league baseball and even college gymnastics. He's also been involved in the gaming industry for nearly 30 years and has been looking to beat the books since he was 13! Ben has had great success in handicapping college football, the NFL, college basketball, the NBA and MLB for 27+ years. His Twitter handle is @BenHayesWAW
