Illinois vs Michigan Prediction & Pick: Best Bet for Thursday, Jan. 18
The Wolverines were down and out. Michigan had lost five straight entering a home matchup with rival Ohio State, sitting at 6-10 overall and 1-4 in conference play.
But with their backs against the wall, Juwan Howard and Co. pulled out an unlikely 73-65 home victory, overcoming a late-game Buckeye rally to win.
Now, the Wolverines host Illinois amid controversy with Terrence Shannon Jr.
However, I think the Illini are a tad undervalued after losing two of its past three, and I’m willing to buy them in a decent schematic situation.
Illinois vs Michigan prediction: Analysis
(8:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)
The key to stopping Michigan is stopping point guard Dug McDaniel’s spread ball-screen sets while also stopping Tarris Reed and Oliver Nkamhoua in post-up sets.
Lucky for Brad Underwood, his team has plenty of elite pick-and-roll ball-handler defenders (Marcus Domask, Ty Rodgers) and post-up defenders (Quincy Guerrier, Coleman Hawkins, Dain Dainja). The Illini rank top 60 nationally in ball-screen PPP allowed (.66) and top 120 in post-up PPP allowed (.79).
On the other end of the court, Illinois mainly scores by running the open floor in transition or by dumping the ball to Domask in isolation. Michigan grades out as a poor transition and isolation defense, so I feel good about the Illini scoring in this matchup.
So, schematically, Illinois is in a good spot.
However, the situational spot screams Illini.
While Michigan is due for a letdown game after a big, emotional rivalry win over Ohio State, Illinois is due for a bounce-back, best-effort performance after losing two of three, including dropping a tough home game to Maryland.
I expect Illinois’ best effort here, and I don’t expect Michigan’s, and with the Illini’s schematic advantages, this should be an easy win for the road team, even if that’s uncommon in Big Ten play.
Our Action PRO Model projects the Illini as six-point road favorites over the Wolverines in Ann Arbor, so there’s solid value in backing Illinois at -3 or better.
Illinois vs Michigan prediction: Pick
Illinois -2.5 (-105) at FanDuel | Play to -3 (-110)
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