India v Sri Lanka preview and best bets

sportinglife.com

31 October 2023

Cricket betting tips: India v Sri Lanka

1pt Rohit Sharma to be Man of the Match at 7/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Shubman Gill to be Man of the Match at 7/1 (General)

India haven’t put a foot wrong at the Cricket World Cup so far and the tournament favourites are expected to make short work of Sri Lanka when they meet at the Wankhede Stadium on Thursday, 8.30am, UK time.

Regular readers of these pages will know by now that I’m a big fan of betting runs at this venue, but Sri Lanka’s limp display when losing to Afghanistan on Monday tempers enthusiasm for a both teams to score 300+ runs bet.

Sri Lanka's lack of urgency as they stuttered to 241 on a good pitch in Pune was most concerning, and up against India’s top-class bowling attack, one that dismissed the Sri Lankans for only 50 in the final of the Asia Cup recently, they will likely struggle to keep pace.

Sri Lanka middle order worth a second look

I did give some thought to betting a couple of Sri Lanka’s middle order in the top batsman market – namely experienced heads Dhananjaya de Silva and Angelo Matthews – at double figure odds and bigger, but the expectation we will be treated to another belter of a batting pitch will mean there are no excuses for the top order.

The winning margin betting available with Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power makes for interesting reading, and should India bat first, I’d expect them to win by 90+ runs or 10 wickets. Batting second leaves no room for manoeuvre, however, nor does 4/1.

Betting a mismatch isn’t always easy, but the Man of the Match market ought to be relatively safe territory, and it’s worth noting that from India’s six wins so far at this World Cup, batsmen have picked up the award on four occasions, and bowlers only twice.

That bias is no real surprise, especially not with India who boast such a well-rounded attack that the wickets are generally shared around. At the Wankhede, the power of bat over ball means that trend is likely to continue.

With two wins already, Virat Kohli is the obvious starting point, having started the tournament in tremendous fashion by amassing 354 runs at an average of 88.50.

India openers set for more domination

There is some 7/1 knocking around about him, but I prefer the claims of opening pair ROHIT SHARMA and SHUBMAN GILL, both also chalked up at 7/1, and I’ll dutch both.

Opening could place both men at a significant advantage here, particularly if batting second and chasing something in the region of 250. Conversely, if batting first, Rohit and Gill will get first crack at posting the type of big score that will likely win this market.

Rohit’s record in world cups is staggering – he now has seven hundreds in World Cup cricket – and he very nearly chalked up another century when his 87 helped India haul themselves to a winning total against England on Sunday.

In truth, Rohit was on another level to any other batsman on either side in that match, defying tough conditions, and it’s no surprise that he is now firmly in the mix for top tournament batsman.

Rohit has six ODI tons against Sri Lanka already – only Australia have suffered at his hands more in this format – and another big performance appears likely on Thursday.

On more recent form, the case for Gill is harder to make. Since missing the first two matches of the tournament through sickness, Gill hasn’t been able to dominate like he did in the preceding series against Australia, or at the Asia Cup.

Still, he looked very good for his 53 against Bangladesh and given what we know about the 24-year-old already, he is unlikely to stay quiet for long. Six ODI centuries and 10 fifties from only 39 matches confirm that, along with an impressive career average of 61.24.

So far, Gill’s performances against Sri Lanka have been strong, with one century from five matches and an average over sixty a very healthy return, and there is no reason why we won’t see more of the same from this brilliant opening batsman at the Wankhede.