Indian Wells predictions & betting preview with 60/1 tip

Indian Wells predictions

Indian Wells, one of the biggest tournaments on the tennis calendar outside the Grand Slams, gets underway in California on Wednesday (from 6pm, Sky Sports Tennis).

It is the first ATP Masters 1000 event of 2024 for the men, and a third WTA 1000 contest of the season for the women.

Indian Wells is the first half of the ‘Sunshine Double’ with conditions significantly slower than those in Miami. Carlos Alcaraz defends his men’s title with Elena Rybakina the reigning women’s champion.

Novak Djokovic makes his first appearance at ‘Tennis Paradise’ for five years due to his COVID-19 vaccination stance. The world number one claimed his last of five Indian Wells titles in 2016 but has not reached the quarter-finals since. His last match was his semi-final defeat to Jannik Sinner at January’s Australian Open.

Alcaraz returned from an ankle injury with victory over Rafael Nadal in Sunday’s Netflix Slam exhibition. But Sinner is the man in form having backed up his first Slam success with victory in Rotterdam.

Sinner set to continue winning run

The Italian is in the third quarter which looks the easiest. Ben Shelton is a potential fourth-round opponent and Stefanos Tsitsipas - who reached the last eight in a depleted 2021 field - awaits in the quarters unless Andrey Rublev can get back on track after his Dubai meltdown.

Australian Open runner-up Daniil Medvedev was beaten by Alcaraz in last year’s final. His second quarter features 2022 champion Taylor Fritz and Holger Rune although the Dane may face three-time champion Nadal in round two with all 32 seeds receiving first-round byes.

In the top quarter, recent Dubai winner Ugo Humbert and Hubert Hurkacz may not be helped by the slower conditions. But Casper Ruud will certainly fancy his chances and could meet Djokovic in the quarter-finals. In the bottom section, Alexander Zverev may prove the biggest obstacle to Alcaraz who could struggle to last this long tournament.

With Djokovic not playing for over a month, and perhaps starting to lose his battle with Father Time, it's a surprise to see him heading the Indian Wells odds at 2/1. Sinner has much in his favour here and 7/2 on betting apps is a fair price.

Swiatek handed difficult draw 

The women’s event looks trickier following Jasmine Paolini’s shock triumph in Dubai. Seeded 13, the Italian is in a tough second quarter with a rematch against Anna Kalinskaya on the cards in round three, and Rybakina a likely fourth-round opponent.

Having been victorious in Abu Dhabi, Rybakina went down to Iga Swiatek in the Doha final before illness forced her out of Dubai. The 2022 Wimbledon champion has plenty of ranking points to defend in the weeks ahead having also reached the Miami final last year. While she could retain her crown, there are questions over her durability at present.

World number one Swiatek has a bumpy path with Danielle Collins probably up first in her final appearance at Indian Wells. In round three, Swiatek could face her Australian Open conqueror Linda Noskova or San Diego champion Katie Boulter. And then in the quarter-finals, her most likely opponent is Jelena Ostapenko who boasts a 4-0 H2H record against the Pole. 

Swiatek is the favourite with most gambling sites, but given her potential path through the competition, she is best avoided.

Coco Gauff dominates the third quarter although she is yet to reach the semi-finals at Indian Wells. Former champions Naomi Osaka and Victoria Azarenka are perhaps her main threats although Sorana Cirstea did make the quarter-finals last year and reached the last four in Dubai.

Value outsiders in women’s event

Last year’s runner-up Aryna Sabalenka is in a bottom quarter which includes Jessica Pegula, 2022 finalist Maria Sakkari and Elina Svitolina. Sabalenka suffered a surprise early exit to Donna Vekic in Dubai, going down 6-0 in the decider, and will hope to rediscover her form Stateside.

Svitolina reached the semis in 2019 where she went out to eventual winner Bianca Andreescu. She has looked stronger mentally since her baby break and played well in Melbourne before quitting against Noskova due to injury. 

Losing to Swiatek in Dubai was no disgrace, and she has been competitive against Sabalenka previously. The two-time Australian Open champion is the standout player in this section, but Svitolina's price of 60/1 on betting sites may end up proving excellent value.

In the tougher top half, Marketa Vondrousova can put together a run in conditions which should suit. The Czech left-hander looked back up to speed in Dubai before an inexplicable collapse from a set and 5-1 up on Cirstea. 

A quarter-finalist in 2019, the year she reached the French Open final, this might be the time to catch her and 50/1 on tennis betting sites is a big price about the reigning Wimbledon champion.

In the case of both Svitolina and Vondrousova, backing them each-way would with our selected bookmakers will mean a payout at half the odds should they reach the final and lose.

Indian Wells Tips:

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Rory Jiwani is a familiar face in the world of betting and sports media with extensive experience working for sports publications like the Sunday Mirror, ITN, Sky Sports News, Stan James, Talksport and the Olympic Channel. Rory is a keen follower of most sports, including horse racing, tennis, cricket and golf. He contributes betting tips for The Independent.