Miami Open tips: Tennis predictions, best odds & free bets
Third time lucky for Sinner
After a stuttering start to the year, Alcaraz looked back to his best at Indian Wells, beating Daniil Medvedev in the final to retain his title and claiming the fifth ATP Masters tournament of his career.
With six-time winner Novak Djokovic opting not to play in Miami, one of the biggest threats to the Spaniard’s Sunshine Double ambitions has already been eliminated.
But he’s been handed a particularly treacherous path in Miami with former champion Hubert Hurkacz and the resurgent Grigor Dimitrov both in the same quarter as Alcaraz.
Stopping the top seed won’t be easy mind given he’s made at least the semi-finals on his last two appearances at Miami Gardens. Still, odds of 2/1 on betting sites on him becoming only the eighth man to complete the Sunshine Double don’t appeal.
Defending champion Daniil Medvedev will have his backers at 11/2 given his good record in Miami and consistency this season, the Russian having reached the final of Indian Wells last week.
Alexander Zverev at 12/1 is another price that catches the eye after being handed a relatively kind draw, but this tournament has always seemed set up for a Jannik Sinner win and this could be the year he delivers.
The Italian has twice reached the final in Florida in the last three years, while he was forced to retire in the quarter-finals in 2022.
Now without the pressure of his 19-match winning run, which Alcaraz ended in the semi-finals of Indian Wells, we could see the Australian Open champion finally get his hands on the Miami Open prize.
The faster courts play more to Sinner’s strengths than Alcaraz, who can't meet until a potential blockbuster final, and there doesn’t look to be too many dangers lying in wait in Sinner’s quarter.
Sinner’s odds hardly scream value but there’s plenty to like about his chances of going all the way.
Rybakina can lay down the challenge to Swiatek
In the women’s event, many punters will be happy to take the 13/8 available on Swiatek completing the Sunshine Double for the second time in her career given the ease with which she triumphed at Indian Wells.
She barely broke a sweat in the desert when capturing the eighth WTA 1000 title of her career, dropping only 21 games the entire tournament as she breezed past Maria Sakkari 6-4, 6-0 in last weekend's final.
The world No 1 is in formidable form, but there’s a reason only five women have ever completed the Sunshine Double with fatigue a significant factor.
It’s, therefore, prudent to look at the other contenders on gambling sites who could be capable of ending Swiatek’s run.
Last year’s Miami Open runner-up, Elena Rybakina, is next in the outright betting and with good reason given her previous performances at Miami Gardens and her strong start to 2024.
The world No 4 already has two titles to her name with victories in Brisbane and Abu Dhabi, while she reached the final in Doha, only to come up short against Swiatek.
She missed Indian Wells through illness, so she is hopefully raring to go this week, where the slightly faster Florida surface should suit her.
Rybakina is in the bottom half of the draw, which looks the less competitive of the two given the expected withdrawal of Aryna Sabalenka.
She came up short in last year’s final against Petra Kvitova, who won’t be defending her title due to her pregnancy, and this looks like a good opportunity to make amends.
Home favourite may spring a surprise
On route to last year’s final, Rybakina defeated local favourite Jessica Pegula in the semi-finals.
The Florida resident has reached the last four in each of the last two editions of the Miami Open and a strong performance in her adopted state could be just what she needs to kickstart her season.
The 30-year-old has struggled to get going in 2024, owning an unremarkable 6-5 win-loss record after an early exit from Indian Wells.
She also crashed out of the Australian Open in the second round and the draw hasn’t been too kind having been placed in the same quarter as Swiatek.
But Pegula has had the better of her recent meetings with Swiatek, winning four of their last six encounters on hard courts, and she could be the one to knock the world No 1 out of her stride.
One of those victories over Swiatek came in the WTA Finals as part of an excellent end to 2023 and she has shown flashes of that form this year when reaching the last four in San Diego and Adelaide.
For those wanting an each-way bet, Pegula’s price stands out as someone who has the quality to be a contender in Miami and she knows what it takes to go deep in this tournament.
An each-way bet with Betway, who have the top price on the American, would show a return if Pegula reaches the final. If she's the runner-up at the Miami Open, Betway will pay out at 1/2 the odds.
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Chris is an experienced sports betting writer who has worked with most major bookmakers and national media outlets, such as Racing Post and ITN. He covers a wide range of sports with his favourites being NFL, rugby, football and Formula 1.
