Intelligent Hockey: Best bets for Saturday

The next month or so of the season is always kooky. Playoff-bound teams experiment with lineup combinations. Franchises far outside the postseason picture play free and loose, as AHL players cycle in and out, and coaches strive to finish on a high note. There is still a little drama, as not all playoff spots have been locked up, but most teams are just there for the credits to roll on the regular season. 

With erratic play pervasive and results chaotic, I again have cast about for unders in the hope they are more predictable. This week, I’m sidling up to a few familiar faces, players on bad teams who will be facing strong defences and who also have a track record of not registering points on a regular basis.

Detroit Red Wings at Boston Bruins
Saturday, March 11 – 1:00 PM ET
The season isn’t over yet, but the Boston Bruins are on pace for the lowest goals against since the 2013-14 season. The team’s soul-sucking defence screams opportunity from a betting standpoint, and my thirst to wager on them only intensifies as I see certain stars aligning. 

The Bruins will be playing at home, where they are nearly unbeatable. They also should be grumpy as they squandered a 2-0 lead on Thursday against Edmonton and witnessed their ten-game win streak snap. There are a certain class of opponents who could extend the Bruins’ losing streak. Detroit isn’t one of them.

The Red Wings are going to try to win this game by forechecking and cycling the Bruins into oblivion. But Detroit’s offensive limitations on the rush have proved costly lately. On Wednesday, the Red Wings ended a six-game losing streak, finally generating enough offence to overcome the three goals they allowed.

During their losing streak, the offensive shortcomings of the Red Wings were revealing even when they played well. For example, on February 25th, they lost 3-0 to the Tampa Bay Lightning even though the Red Wings dominated the game, with their forecheck and cycle wreaking havoc. They outshot the Bolts 45-18 and still lost by a three-goal spread. In four of the six games in their losing streak, the Red Wings scored one goal or less.

For this game, I want to avoid Detroit’s most dangerous line, which is unequivocally the Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, and David Perron triumvirate. Against Chicago on Thursday, this line outshot the Blackhawks 11-3 when it was on the ice, and tripled the Blackhawks in shot attempts.

Enter Andrew Copp, Detroit’s second-line center. With Robby Fabbri now injured, Copp’s linemates are a bit of an open question. On Wednesday we saw him play with Domink Kubalik, Filip Zadina, Pius Suter, and Jonatan Berggren. All five of these players share a few things in common. They don’t play on the first power-play unit. And they are all role players. 

Copp is a pass-first player who the Red Wings use for defensive zone faceoffs even though he is a negative defensive player per Evolving Hockey. Among players on the roster, he is bottom-five on the team in expected goals and high-danger chances percentage. 

Moritz Seider is scarier to fade. He is much more talented than Copp. He is the Red Wings present and future No. 1 defencemen. Since Filip Hronek was traded, Seider gets first unit power-play minutes. As a defensive partner he has chemistry with Jake Walman, who is also a strong skater and playmaker. Since Hronek was traded, Seider has points in three of his last four games. 

But Seider has only notched points in 23 of 64 games this season. On Evolving Hockey, he has a 0.6 offensive rating, the same as mediocre defenceman Robert Hagg. Seider will be facing the best defence in the NHL and the best penalty kill. Boston excels at getting in shooting and passing lanes, so I think Detroit is going to have a lot of trouble getting the puck through and finding the space in the slot. I don’t know whether the Bruins put up two or five goals in this game, but I feel confident about their ability to stifle the Red Wings offence.

Picks: Andrew Copp U 0.5 points -115, Moritz Seider U 0.5 points -105

Arizona Coyotes at Colorado AvalancheSaturday, March 11 – 6:00 PM ET

Is history repeating itself? This may come as a surprise, but the Avalanche played Arizona once this season and got waxed 6-3 by the Yotes. Arizona generated more shots, drew more power-play opportunities, and held a multi-goal lead for long stretches of the game.

The loss was the first domino in an Avalanche slide as goaltender Alexandar Georgiev wore down from playing every game (Colorado lost seven of eight games) and that didn’t stop until goaltender Pavel Francouz returned from injury. Funny enough, the same scenario is playing out right now. Once again, Francouz is injured, and once more Colorado is leaning on Georgiev to soak up all the minutes. But having lost four of their last five, I think the Avalanche find their game on Saturday night against a plucky Arizona team.

The Kings were a valuable precursor for the Avalanche before this matchup. The Kings and the Coyotes both use neutral-zone forechecks to feed their counterattacks, albeit Arizona uses a 1-2-2 instead of a 1-3-1 like Los Angeles. The Kings and the Coyotes also both want to cycle and spray shots on net to facilitate offence through screens and tips. 

Against Los Angeles, Colorado failed to box out and stay above the puck and got burned. The Avalanche have been buoyed by their defence this season, especially as their offence has been spotty, and they will need to be better with the details if they are going to win. 

Similar to the Red Wings, I am running away from the first line of the Coyotes. Against Nashville on Thursday, the Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller, and Barrett Hayton line was terrifying, attacking on entries with speed and finding open space on the cycle. But Arizona’s second and third lines are less fearsome, and if the Colorado forecheckers hunt pucks and support when the Avs’ defencemen try to stanch the breakout by pinching, Arizona will get trapped in their own zone for extended periods of time.

Arizona’s Lawson Crouse, a left wing, is currently on a four-game point streak, the first time he has had a point streak this long since the middle of the 2019-20 season. He plays with Matias Maccelli, a strong skater and gifted playmaker, and center Jack McBain. Maccelli and McBain each have less than 76 games of NHL experience. With Crouse not included on the first power-play unit, his offence will likely have to come from 5-on-5. I like those chances for an under.

If Travis Boyd is going to notch a point, it is very likely going to be on the power play. Boyd plays third line, but on the first power-play unit, he plays in the bumper position. He protects the puck well and can distribute from the middle, but the gravity of the power play runs off the flanks and in the net front with Hayton. If the Avs avoid the penalty box, Boyd’s scoring at 5-on-5 will need to come with Christian Fischer and Brett Ritchie, two grinders. Boyd has a two-game point streak, but he has points in 22 of 65 games. Boyd is a depth forward.

The Coyotes have scored four goals or more in each of their last three games. Two players who don’t normally fill the scoresheet are on extended point streaks. With the Avalanche clinging to third in the Central, I think the Avalanche find their game on Saturday and shut out Arizona’s role players. 

Picks: Lawson Crouse U 0.5 points -140, Travis Boyd U 0.5 points -165

New Jersey Devils at Montreal Canadiens
Saturday, March 11 – 7:00 PM ET
There is a lot of overlap with regard to how various teams play. They want to drive the puck north. Their forwards and defencemen both attack. They are aggressive with pinching and defending the blue lines. Plays are carefully engineered to set up screens and tips and make cross-ice passes. But the Canadiens definitely march to their own beat, making them strange and enjoyable to watch.  

The Canadiens are so poor at forechecking that they mostly don’t try it; their offence is predicated on rush chances and counterattacks. When they get the puck behind the net in their own end, they run breakout plays to spring their forwards into space. And the line that most embodies the Canadiens’ live-by-the-rush, die-by-the-rush philosophy is that of Jonathan Drouin, Mike Hoffman, and Josh Anderson. On Saturday, the Habs will have a fascinating matchup against New Jersey, one of the stingiest teams in the NHL.

The Devils are the second-best team in the NHL in allowing high-danger chances per 60 minutes, and one of the reasons is their ability to deny clean entries. The Devils’ back-checking helps embolden the defensive group, resulting in opponents unsuccessfully chipping and chasing. 

Well, the Drouin line almost certainly won’t go that route. It will try to create chaos in the neutral zone to free up a man with a stretch pass, bump pass, pick, or aerial pass. More than any other line, it will attempt an east-west pass that could give the Devils a juicy odd-man rush if they pick it off. 

More than his linemates, Drouin makes the most compelling under. He doesn’t play first power-play unit. He doesn’t score goals (he has only one on the season). His avenue for points is through assists. But with New Jersey understanding Drouin’s playmaking proclivities and his line’s desire not to forecheck, I think the Devils pressure Drouin, Hoffman, and Anderson into submission and force them to spend extended time hemmed in their own end.  

The 5-on-5 numbers for the Drouin line are pretty solid considering how bad the team is in the advanced stats. The line outshoots opponents and is a positive in expected goals percentage. With Montreal having last change at home, coach Martin St. Louis will have more agency with setting the matchup. 

But the Devils are one of the best road teams in the NHL and have outstanding forward depth. At 5-on-5, New Jersey excels. I think the Canadiens have caught teams by surprise lately, but the Devils will stymie a Montreal offence that lacks versatility. Given his lack of opportunity on the man advantage, fading Drouin seems like the right play.

Pick: Jonathan Drouin U 0.5 points -140