Iowa vs. Tennessee Prediction, Preview, and Odds
The Cheez-It Citrus Bowl will pit the Big Ten against the SEC at 1:00 p.m. EDT this Monday. Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida is playing host to the Iowa Hawkeyes (10-3; 6-6-1 ATS) and Tennessee Volunteers (8-4; 6-6-0 ATS) as they wrap their seasons. It'll mark the first meeting since January 2, 2015, a massive Tennessee win. Will history repeat itself, or are the Hawkeyes headed for redemption?
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Iowa Eyeing Strong Finish
After getting shut out in the Big Ten Championship Game, Iowa is trying to leave a better final impression upon the season. Unfortunately, the offense is the problem, and it's still missing QB Cade McNamara, two backup QBs, TE Erick All, TE Luke Lachey, and WR Diante Vines. That's not a good sign for a squad that finished with the fewest yards per game nationwide this season. They had the fourth-fewest passing yards, which led to the fourth-fewest points per game (16.6) in the country. Scoring has held the Hawkeyes back for years now. Shorthanded entering this one, Iowa's offensive outlook is bleak.
Which is a shame because the defense, absent Cooper DeJean and a few transfers on Monday, is stellar. The Hawkeyes allowed the fifth-fewest yards per game in college football this season. Iowa surrendered 13.2 points per game (4th), with only two teams reaching 20 points against them. They were a top-15 team against the run and the pass. Defense, paired with strong special teams, is how Iowa competes in most games. Can it carry them to victory one final time?
Tennessee's Time to Shine with New Faces
Tennessee wrapped up their regular season by thumping Vanderbilt. Now, they'll seek one more win without starting QB Joe Milton III and their two leading rushers offensively. That'll have huge implications for a Tennessee team that finished 17th in yards per game with 453.5. The Volunteers averaged 31.5 points per game this season, and three of the major pieces for that puzzle are opting out. Getting the 202.6 rushing yards per game (14th) and 250.9 passing yards that made the offense elite will be a struggle. Unless the Volunteers get fantastic contributions from the next men up.
On the other end, Tennessee has an extensive list of transfers, including a few key players. This is a defense that kept opponents to 22.0 points per game, so they weren't slouches. However, Tennessee also gave up 348.7 yards per game, which was at full strength. The Volunteers only allowed 113.8 yards per game on the ground, which will be the most important aspect of this game. Will losing multiple key pieces sink the ship?
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
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Tennessee's offense will have a long afternoon against the Iowa defense. Sure, the Volunteers may not allow many points, even shorthanded. Yet, for one of the few times this season, Tennessee won't have much firepower when they have the ball.
Missing Joe Milton III, Jaylen Wright (1,013 rushing yards), and Jabari Small (475 rushing yards) is going to hurt them a lot. The Hawkeyes already have an elite defense, which was one of the top five units all season. Expect Iowa's defense to once again make this a competitive game that finishes within five points. It's what they've done almost all season against weak offenses.
Prediction: Iowa +6.5
Full-Game Total Pick
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There is never a guarantee that Iowa will reach 10 points in a game, not with an offense that's injured and arguably the worst in college football. Tennessee may be missing players, but it won't matter for the defense to stifle the Hawkeyes. Iowa, kings of the under, will play their part in keeping this low-scoring.
As should Tennessee's offense, which will have issues generating an effective rushing attack without their top two rushers or starting quarterback. Iowa's defense, which was top-five in yards and points allowed, will feast on Tennessee's new faces. The total is low, but not low enough for an Iowa game.
Prediction: Under 35.5
Watching, playing, and talking about sports has always been an essential part of my life. I graduated from the University of Connecticut with a degree in Communication, and now, I'm striving to be an essential voice in sports media for decades to come. You'd be hard-pressed to find someone more competitive than me, and that extends into my sports betting predictions as well. We're all here to win, and my goal is to make that happen every single night while letting my personality shine in the process. I am honored to be apart of this team.
