Is Aablan professional enough for the Breeders' Cup? Matt Brocklebank assesses Charlie Appleby's colt
Nobody is pretending Saturday’s Solario Stakes was the strongest juvenile race of the year. On the contrary, Aablan’s Timeform rating of 99p on the back of his hard-fought neck verdict over Inishfallen is the joint-lowest winning performance rating in the Group 3 race since 2014.
But Charlie Appleby’s two-year-olds should rarely be underestimated and in the face of having to retire a number of the established older brigade this season, the juvenile division has ultimately been Appleby’s principal focus with the vast majority of his three-year-old turf horses simply not coming up to scratch at all.
Just 15 domestic three-year-old turf winners this year at a hit-rate of 16% – he’s had 24 on the all-weather at 47% for context – is clearly a disappointing return for one of the world's finest trainers, but the juveniles have been ticking over close to 30% on the grass and 50% on the all-weather, with Dubawi colt Aablan seemingly among the cream of the crop in light of Saturday's success (replay below).
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Appleby is a brilliant placer of horses and the end-of-season target that immediately springs to mind with his latest Sandown scorer is the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, a race the Godolphin trainer's two previous Solario winners, Masar and Silver Knott, went on to contest at the end of their two-year-old season.
Aablan is not flashy, already looks to need a mile and still seems to be learning on the job so it’s highly unlikely we’ve seen the best of him yet, and while James Doyle’s post-race comments about him being “flamboyant” early on in his races might sound the odd alarm bell when it comes to a trip to the States, there is still time to get another run or two into the horse before a decision needs to be made over the States.
Last year’s Solario winner Silver Knott was having his third start by that point and went on to run in Doncaster's Champagne Stakes and the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket, while the 2021 BC Juvenile Turf representative Modern Games had been toughened up down the nursery route before winning the Tattersalls Stakes at HQ on his fifth start of the year prior to being shipped to Del Mar.
Line Of Duty had been beaten twice before winning a Goodwood maiden and a Group 3 in France before following up at Churchill Downs in 2018, Masar had had four starts including one at Group 1 level ahead of his run at the 2017 Breeders’ Cup, and Outstrip made four starts including a third in the Dewhurst before winning at Santa Anita in 2013.
Three of Appleby’s five Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf runners have gone to America and won, one has been beaten a nose in second and the other finished a luckless sixth before winning the Derby the following June. They don’t just fall into the aeroplane; these colts are cherry-picked not purely on ability but on experience, temperament and, arguably above all, professionalism.
Aablan evidently still has a fair way to go to meet the criteria from what we’ve seen on the track, so is there another obvious candidate?
Frankel colt By The Book looked a serious prospect when winning by over three lengths on debut at Haydock in mid-June but hasn’t been out since, while Emperor’s Star, a son of Sea The Stars out of a half-sister to Cloth Of Stars, opened his account at the third time of asking in a Chelmsford novice recently but he holds his head a bit high and doesn’t look the most straightforward which must be a black mark against his name with this particular project in mind.
The one who absolutely screams America is the Dubawi colt Arabian Crown, too green to do himself justice when third to Starlore first time out at Sandown, but a comfortable winner in his two subsequent starts.
He didn’t need to improve much to land a Sandown maiden at the second time of asking but significantly stepped forward again when beating Andrew Balding’s Newmarket maiden winner Arabic Legend (heavily-backed 13/8 fav) by two and a quarter lengths in a mile Listed race at Salisbury last month.
"He is very professional and he has really learned from his last two runs," William Buick said in the aftermath of the race and such comments will not have been lost on his trainer.
Rated 103p by Timeform, Arabian Crown is already a touch ahead of Aablan in his development and he has the one extra run under his belt already too which, if history is anything to go by, could be the deciding factor when it comes to weighing up who makes the journey to Santa Anita as October turns to November.
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