Italian Open best bets for men’s semifinals: Pick Tsitsipas to win first set vs. Medvedev

Four of the best men’s tennis players in the world are competing in the men’s semifinals at the Italian Open.

The pregame narrative: Stefanos Tsitsipas has yet to lose a set at the Italian Open, making him a good pick to best Daniil Medvedev in the first set. Casper Ruud is an underdog worth backing in his match versus Holger Rune.

Find our Italian Open best bets for the men’s semifinals below.

Tennis odds as of 3:25 p.m. on 05/19/2023.

Italian Open best bets

Medvedev vs. Tsitsipas: May 20, 8:20 a.m.

Best Bet: Tsitsipas to win Set 1 (-134)

Medvedev holds a 7-4 all-time head-to-head wins lead over Tsitsipas, but recent results show the tide is turning.

Tsitsipas has won three of the last four meetings between the two, a stretch which includes a straight sets victory at the French Open’s clay courts in 2021. He also won the first set in all three of those matches.

The Greek is looking dominant in Rome, advancing to the semis with four straight-sets victories.

It’s been a different story for Medvedev, as the Russian superstar has lost the first set in three of his last six matches.

When looking at each’s body of work on the clay courts, it’s clear the edge lies with Tsitsipas. Although Medvedev is enjoying a strong year (8-2) on the surface, his career record pails in comparison (75-42) to his counterpart (158-48). Tsitsipas is an equally impressive 13-3 on clay in 2023, too.

Tsitsipas is a -150 favourite to win this match, but we prefer wagering on him to take the opening set at odds that feature a little less juice.

Rune vs. Ruud Italian Open pick

Rune vs. Ruud: May 20, 7:00 a.m.

Best Bet: Ruud +2.5 games (-127)

One quick glance at the head-to-head history between these two shows exactly why Ruud is an underdog with a bite.

The Norwegian tennis player is an impressive 4-0 versus Rune, with all four of his victories coming on the clay courts.

Rune deserves credit for his run in Rome, as the rising Danish star ousted Novak Djokovic in his most recent match. He now owns back-to-back wins over the Serbian legend, but it’s clear that Ruud is a challenge that presents difficulties for the youngster.

Ruud is the more accomplished player on this surface, too. One of his victories over Rune was at last year’s French Open, where he advanced to the final before losing to Rafael Nadal.

While Rune owns the more impressive victory at this tournament, it did not come easily, resulting in plenty of time on court. Rune has seven hours and 59 minutes of court time to Ruud’s six hours and 20 minutes.

Betting on Ruud to win the match (+135) isn’t a bad wager, either, but we’ll take the games.