Italy v England tips: Six Nations preview and best bets
Six Nations betting tips: Italy v England
2pts England first half lead 8-14 points at 11/4 (BoyleSports)
1pt Ben Earl to be player of the match at 4/1 (General)
1pt Juan Ignacio Brex to score a try at 6/1 (Sky Bet, Ladbrokes, Coral)
0.5pt England/Italy HT/FT result at 25/1 (bet365)
Italy v England
- Rome, Saturday 1415 GMT
For all the injury disruption that England have had in the build-up to the Six Nations and the fact Italy’s team looks strong and settled on paper, it is still a little difficult to make a case for a shock Azzurri win.
Putting last year’s battling 29-24 defeat to France and a two-point defeat to Les Bleus in 2016 aside, Italy have been well beaten in the opening round of matches in the last decade, losing by an average of 22 points. England may struggle to match or beat that and the handicap mark of around 15/16 points looks to be about right, so that’s one market to avoid in our eyes.
With Italy, the optimism of a new campaign always seem to evaporate all too quickly, mainly because the Azzurri lack the composure and game-management to get the job done. Those are two qualities that George Ford has in abundance and with him at 10, we feel a lot happier that England can mitigate the risks of selecting five debutants in their 23 and come away with a win.
But, like we said, we don’t expect the margin to be anywhere near 50-9 win they achieved the last and only previous time they kicked of the Championship in Rome, when Jason Robinson’s hat-trick did for the Italians.
Ellis Genge’s demotion to the bench and Ollie Lawrence’s absence through injury does deprive the starting XV of two big ball carriers and the onus will be on BEN EARL to carry the fight to Italy. Earl stood up and delivered some huge performances at the World Cup, and we expect him to do so again. He’s a justifiable 4/1 favourite to be the Player of the Match in our eyes.
On the Italian side, JUAN IGNACIO BREX is a consistently powerful runner, and with the creative Tommaso Menoncello inside him, Italy may fancy their chances of exploiting any lapses in communication in what is a new England centre partnership.
Fraser Dingwall is a brilliant defensive leader for Northampton in terms of organisation but both he and outside-centre Henry Slade are not the biggest in physique, and you can bet that Gonzalo Quesada, the Azzurri’s new coach, will want Brex to run hard lines down that channel. Sky Bet and Coral/Ladbrokes offer 6/1 to be an anytime tryscorer, which for an outside back, playing at home, against an untested defence with question marks over it, looks value.
If you can’t help yourself and are determined to go for an Italian win, a half-time/full-time double result of England/Italy could be the best approach.
In last year’s Championship, England generally kept things tight in the first half – not conceding a single try in the first quarter of matches –before falling away in the second, conceding twice as many tries in the latter period.
The fact that Italy scored twice as many second-half tries (six to three) as they did in the first half (and four times as many at the World Cup) complements the theory that there could be a significant momentum change in the match with England building up a steady lead and Italy clawing it back.
With that in mind, a winning FIRST-HALF margin of 8-14 POINTS for England looks entirely within their grasp and rates the best bet at 11/4, but we'll have a speculative play on Italy turning things around after the break given the prices on offer.
Posted at 1120 GMT on 02/02/24
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