Six Nations tips: Best bets for this weekend's round five matches including England v France

Six Nations betting tips: Round four

1pt treble Italy, England and Ireland to win at 11/2 (bet365)

2pts Italy to beat Wales at 23/20 (bet365)

2pts England v France under 44.5 points at 5/6 (bet365)

1pt England winning margin 1-7 points at 16/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

1pt Anthony Watson anytime try-scorer at 12/5 (bet365, SpreadEx)

2pts Ireland/Ireland in half-time/full-time market at 8/11 (General)

Italy v Wales

• Stadio Olimpico, Rome
• Saturday, 1415 GMT
• ITV

Speculative betting tips have long been accompanied by the retort, ‘who do you think you are, Mystic Meg?’ So, in the week that TV and newspaper astrologist sadly passed away, it is perhaps fitting that we should attempt to look into the future and predict something out of the ordinary: a home win for ITALY.

Asides from paying homage to the UK's most renowned stargazer, there is plenty of substance to the belief that Italy can beat Wales, even without their best player, Ange Capuozzo, and also taking into account the 28-game losing streak they are currently on at the Stadio Olimpico.

In my mind, the only reluctance to back Italy comes from not knowing how they will react to finding themselves in the unusual position of being expected to win, despite Wales being marked up as slight favourites.

Having a card-happy referee could also be an interesting sub-plot. Not one red card has been shown in 31 previous meetings between Italy and Wales but if any official is likely to break that duck, it is Damon Murphy. The Aussie has issued two red cards in nine Tests to date and once sin-binned a record four Argentina players against South Africa.

Most of the confidence around Italy stems from the fact that Wales simply aren’t very good. Combine this with the ongoing uncertainty over the players’ futures in the game, and Wales look a sorry lot, on and off the pitch.

Italy are going in a positive direction. They have a canny coach in Kieran Crowley, and the quality of personnel, even with Capuozzo out injured, to hammer another nail into the coffin of a Welsh side that doesn’t score anywhere near enough points to win games at this level.

Wales are averaging a miserly nine points per game with only three tries included in their overall tally of 27 points. At this rate, they are well on course to a set a new national record for the fewest points scored in a single Championship in the pro era (62 in 1996).

Seventeen different centre combinations since the last Rugby World Cup have been tried and not properly tested by Wales, and that helps to part explain why they are such a blunt attacking force. By contrast, Italy’s midfield of Tommaso Menoncello and Juan Ignacio Brex looks to be a potent combination of pace and power, giving the directness that Wales lack.

It is also puzzling that Warren Gatland has dropped one of their few genuine world-class stars in Louis Rees-Zammit to the bench, especially as there are likely to be more broken-field running opportunities in this game for him to lap up than in the others.

Going into a Test with only one specialist goalkicker, in this case Owen Williams, is also a big risk considering how long Wales have relied on Dan Biggar’s boot to keep the scoreboard ticking over.

In all, it looks to be a mish-mash type of selection with Gatland groping in the dark for answers. If only he could call on Mystic Meg.

England v France

• Twickenham, London
• Saturday, 1645 GMT
• ITV

Given the damp forecast and the ferocity of ‘Le Crunch’, this game could have been tailor-made for a fired-up Owen Farrell. Dropping England’s captain to the bench for the first time since 2015 was probably long overdue but Steve Borthwick may just have picked the wrong game to wield the axe.

Thankfully for Marcus Smith, England’s pack will fancy their chances of giving the impish Harlequin plenty of front-foot ball. France are down to their third or fourth-choice tight-head in Dorian Aldegheri and England will look to turn the screw at scrum-time, win penalties and make France pay by either kicking to the corner or at goal.

Aldegheri hasn’t played for France for two years and Ellis Genge will be out to make life back in Test rugby as uncomfortable as possible for the Toulouse man. Genge captains England for the first time and as the type of player that likes to lead from the front and by example, we expect a big performance from the Bristolian.

In such circumstances you’d wager that a forward would get across the whitewash from close range at decent odds, but Maro Itoje is the only member of the starting pack to ever score against the French. Normally, Jamie George is fairly prolific as a try-scoring hooker at Test level but he is 0 in 8 against Les Bleus.

So whilst it is not the most original of picks, ANTHONY WATSON is where our money is going in the anytime try-scorer market. He delivered for us against Wales, and playing against France seems to bring the best out of him. The Leicester flyer has bagged five tries in six and looks hungry for more, so at bigger than 2/1 he's value.

France aren’t at their fluent best at present and it could be another frustrating afternoon at Twickenham. Home advantage has counted for something in each of the last half-a-dozen meetings and given France’s record in the competition – they haven’t won at Twickenham since 2005 – we’re banking on another home win, by a tight margin of 1-7 points.

The last French win was thanks to six penalties from the boot of Dimitri Yachvili, the goal-kicking scrum-half scoring all of his side’s points in an 18-17 victory. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Saturday’s scoreline was something similar, but with maybe England adding one score on top. UNDER 44.5 TOTAL POINTS is the way to go.

Both teams have scored the vast majority of their points in the first half of matches in this year’s Championship. Sixty per cent of England’s 67 points (40/27) have come before the break, while France are even more prolific in the first 40, scoring 71 per cent of their points (57/80) so it figures that is where your money should go in the highest-scoring half market.

Scotland v Ireland

• Murrayfield, Edinburgh
• Sunday, 1500 GMT
• BBC

In the 23-year history of the Six Nations, Ireland and Scotland have never been first and second in the table so deep into the competition.

Growing up in the 70s and 80s, fixtures between the two Celtic rivals were more commonly associated with wooden spoons. But here we are, set for the penultimate round, with a top-of-the-table clash like never before.

It is the biggest test of Scotland’s credentials since their last big match, against France, a fortnight ago. While for Ireland, it is one of two final steps that they need to overcome to complete a third Grand Slam under the Championship’s current format with England at home, on March 18, the other outstanding fixture.

But before they can think of England and the prize that may or may not still be at stake, they need to take care of business in Edinburgh first.

Ireland have won 20 of their last 22 Tests, only losing to France and New Zealand in the last two years, and are on seven-match winning streak against the Scots. It would take something special from the Scots to halt that run.

This is the 50th Test between the teams at Murrayfield and Ireland have a marginally better win record than their hosts (26 wins to 22), so it isn’t a ground that holds any particular fears for the standout team of the tournament.

Scotland have delivered three consecutive strong performances and having had a week off, they will be re-energised. But in terms of motivation, Ireland definitely have the edge and their greater squad depth should also tell at this late stage of the competition, meaning their 2/5 favourites' tag is fully justified.

Make of this what you will but it is perhaps telling that Ireland have won their last five encounters in round four of the Six Nations and have an overall success rate of 74% on the penultimate weekend compared to Scotland’s 22 per cent. Round four is Scotland’s worst-performing round other than round two (17%).

Only once in the last eight encounters has one of the teams topped 30 points (Ireland in a 31-16 win in the Autumn Nations Cup in December 2020). So with that in kind and the forecast of a cold, dank day with snow showers and a stiff breeze expected, this could be the first occasion this year where Ireland don’t pick up an extra bonus point for scoring four tries.

Any kind of win will do for either team and as Ireland showed against Italy, they now have the ability, and self-belief, to grind out victories when things aren’t going to script. Players like Caelan Doris regularly stand up to be counted and with the battle of the breakdown and the gain one expected to go Ireland’s way, the formidable back-rower is a very credible contender for the Player of the Match award.

Ireland have typically built a lead in this year’s Six Nations and then consolidated their position in the second half, and all the stats point to the first half – the vagaries of the swirling wind permitting – being the highest-scoring of the match.

Ireland have conceded almost three times as many points before the break than after it and when it comes to Scotland, the figure is roughly double. While shipping points, Ireland come out all guns blazing with 73 of the 100 points they have scored to date coming in the first half.

If the 2/5 on Ireland winning doesn’t appeal, Ireland-Ireland in the HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME stakes rates a rock-solid bet at a more punter-friendly price. Ireland to score under 3.5 tries also makes some appeal but an opening price of 4/6 is short enough on balance.

Posted at 1310 GMT on 10/03/23

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